Egypt PMI January 2016


Egypt: PMI moderates in January

February 3, 2016

The Emirates NDB Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moderated from 48.2 in December to 48.0 in January, losing some of the ground recovered last month. The PMI index has been below the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the non-oil producing private sector for the last four months.

Downturns in output, new orders and employment underpinned January’s result. In addition, exports still tallied a profound contraction amid security concerns weighing on demand. Finally, ongoing weakness of the Egyptian pound led to a sharp increase in input costs.

Emirates NBD analysts noted that “January’s survey represents a marginal slowdown from December, with the export sector appearing to be the main source of weakness. We expect economic activity to accelerate in the coming months, with our forecast for real GDP growth in FY2015/16 sitting at 3.9%.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect total investment to rise 6.3% in fiscal year 2016. The panel expects total investment to increase 6.6% in fiscal year 2017.

Author:, Head of Data Solutions

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Egypt PMI Chart

Egypt PMI January 2016 1

Note: Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in non-oil business conditions while readings below 50 indicate a deterioration.
Source: Emirates NBD and Markit.

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