Egypt Economic Outlook
January 14, 2020
The economy likely slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 FY 2020, which ran from October to December, as suggested by a decrease in the quarter’s non-oil private sector PMI reading compared to the previous quarter. Non-oil private sector activity was hampered by weak demand, contributing to drops in employment in both November and December, boding poorly for the yet-to-be-announced unemployment rate in Q2, which previously ticked up in Q1. More positively, international reserves, which have been climbing since Egypt began the three-year IMF program in 2016, rose to USD 45.4 billion in December, the highest reading in at least a decade-and-a-half. In other news, the government announced in December that several international energy companies, including Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell, had been granted exploration rights in Egyptian waters, in a bid to boost the energy sector.Egypt Economic Growth
Economic growth should stabilize in FY 2020, after strengthening for the second year running in FY 2019. Particularly, higher government spending, improved ease of doing business and lower interest rates should support growth. However, lingering global trade tensions and domestic security scares will likely weigh on the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.6% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in FY 2021.Egypt Economy Data
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Egypt Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 13.70 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 16.04 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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Egypt Economic News
Egypt: Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged in January
January 16, 2020
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) held interest rates steady at its monetary policy meeting on 16 January, leaving the overnight deposit rate at 12.25%.
Egypt: Inflation jumps in December
January 9, 2020
Consumer prices decreased 0.2% in December in month-on-month terms, after decreasing 0.3% in November.
Egypt: Non-oil private sector PMI increases for first time in three months in December
January 6, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, increased to 48.2 in December from 47.9 in November, indicating a softer deterioration in business conditions in the sector over the previous month. Supporting the PMI uptick in December were slower rates of decreases in both output and new orders.
Egypt: Economic growth remains robust despite slowing slightly in Q1 FY 2020
November 14, 2019
The economy expanded 5.6% in the first quarter of FY 2020, which ran from July to September, from the same period a year earlier.
Egypt: Central Bank cuts rates in November after inflation nosedives in October
November 14, 2019
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) slashed interest rates by one percentage point at its monetary policy meeting on 14 November, as had been broadly expected by market analysts.
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