Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

The economy shifted into a higher gear in Q1 FY 2022 (July–September 2021), as conditions improved at a quicker annual pace, according to a preliminary estimate. Turning to FY Q2, growth should have moderated: The non-oil sector PMI remained in contractionary territory in October–December, and averaged lower than in Q1. That said, in October merchandise exports expanded at the quickest pace in 5 months, while goods import growth also accelerated from the prior month. Meanwhile, on 5 January, the government unveiled the draft budget for the 2023 fiscal year—starting in July 2022—which sees a rise in spending. The increased public investment will aim to enhance the efficiency of basic services, expand the social protection network and increase employment opportunities. The budget sees the fiscal deficit narrowing to 6.1% of GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio falling below 90%.

Egypt Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to pick up markedly this fiscal year—running until June 2022—following last year’s pandemic-induced slowdown. Stronger investment and export growth will spearhead the improvement. However, risks to the outlook remain: An increasing unemployment rate and lingering uncertainty over the pandemic cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% in FY 2023.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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