Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

Preliminary data showed that the economy contracted in Q2, as the pandemic and associated lockdown measures impaired activity. GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.8% for the fiscal year 2020 (July 2019 to June 2020), having increased 5.6% in the July–December period: Collapsing tourism, slumping gas prices and spiking unemployment will have all weighed on activity. Turning to the new fiscal year, the continued reopening of the economy and resumption of international travel bode well for an uptick in activity. PMI data for July–August revealed expanding output and new business, despite the headline figures indicating mild contractions in overall conditions. Meanwhile, on 31 August, Moody’s reaffirmed both its B2 credit rating and stable outlook for Egypt, citing effective economic policies, strong foreign exchange holdings and relatively low levels of foreign-denominated debt.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to slow further in FY 2021—which runs from July 2020 to June 2021—as the prolonged impact of the pandemic restrains household spending and inhibits the external sector. Furthermore, decelerating growth in government spending should add to the slowdown somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in FY 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in FY 2022.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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