Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

The economy appears to have had some growing pains in the second quarter of fiscal year 2019—which covered October to December 2018—following a small slowdown in the first quarter. The non-oil private sector was stuck in contractionary territory in November for the third consecutive month, according to survey data. The continued downturn in the sector was led by a decline in output and new orders, although both declines were less pronounced than in October. Meanwhile, a deadly bombing of a tourist bus near the Giza pyramids in late December sent shockwaves through the tourism sector, which remains in recovery-mode after the Arab Spring in 2011 and bombing of a passenger jet near Sharm el Sheikh in 2015. More positively, the World Bank signed off on USD 1 billion of financial support to Egypt on 9 December, adding to the USD 3.2 billion already committed since 2015.

Egypt Economic Growth

This fiscal year, economic growth should be robust thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, despite reducing in recent years, fiscal imbalances continue to weigh on economic prospects. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,4073,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-10.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1103-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.710.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.510.110.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7110.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield17.820.0 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate17.670.0 %Jan 30
Stock Market1,3550.53 %Jan 30

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