Egypt Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021The nascent recovery seemingly picked up pace in Q4 FY 2021 (April–June), with a preliminary estimate indicating that economic growth accelerated at the quickest rate since at least Q4 FY 2009, although the reading will have been flattered by a low base effect. Moving to the new fiscal year, the non-oil sector PMI averaged higher in July–August, albeit remaining mildly in contractionary territory, while merchandise exports and imports continued to expand robustly in July, pointing to healthier demand dynamics. That said, quickly rising daily infection rates, coupled with a sluggish vaccine drive, could lead to new restrictions and potentially temper activity ahead. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to withhold USD 130 million in security assistance to the country until human rights reforms are implemented. In other news, Egypt and Turkey recently pledged further talks in a bid to normalize relations.
Egypt Economic GrowthGDP growth should accelerate in FY 2022 (July 2021–June 2022) from the previous year’s pandemic-induced slowdown. Recovering investment and exports will spearhead the improvement, while the gradual removal of travel restrictions will support the tourism industry and broader activity in turn. The unpredictable evolution of the pandemic is a risk, however. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.0% in FY 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2023.
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|Bond Yield||13.70||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||16.04||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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Egypt Economic News
October 5, 2021
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—dropped to a four-month low of 48.9 in September from August’s 49.8.
September 16, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 16 September, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operation rates unchanged at 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75%, respectively.
September 9, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.07% in August over the previous month, a smaller increase than July's 0.87% rise.
September 5, 2021
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—rose to 49.8 in August from 49.1 in July.
August 10, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.87% in July over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.18% increase logged in June.