Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

Annual economic growth accelerated in Q4 FY 2019, which ran from April to June. Although a detailed GDP breakdown is not yet available, the acceleration appears to have been supported by strong fixed investment, thanks to the government’s ongoing infrastructure drive, and healthy private consumption, buttressed by a recent drop in the unemployment rate. Moreover, the Africa Cup of Nations, which ran in June–July, should have boosted exports of services. Meanwhile, at the start of July, the government cut energy subsidies as part of agreed-to reforms under its three-year financial support program with the IMF. The government was granted on 24 July the final disbursement of USD 2 billion from the total USD 12 billion available under the IMF program. With the program now complete, the IMF urged the government to continue building a market-based economy in the future.

Egypt Economic Growth

The economy should broadly maintain its momentum in FY 2020, which started in July, as it reaps the rewards of the government’s market-friendly reforms, and is supported by strong government investment spending and a tighter labor market. However, still-fragile government finances, an uncertain global trading environment and recurring security problems weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.5% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in FY 2021.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,4073,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.12.1
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.0-10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.189.393.1103108
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.710.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.510.110.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7110.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-37.3
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.459.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.916.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.42.8
International Reserves (USD)15.016.720.117.631.3
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.730.0 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate16.550.0 %Jul 31
Stock Market1,2680.53 %Jul 31

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