Egypt Economic Outlook
March 10, 2020
The economy likely kept steady momentum in the second quarter of FY 2020, which ran from October to December, after slowing marginally in the first. Higher government spending, particularly on investment and public wages, likely underpinned activity. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.8% in Q1, potentially dampening private consumption. On the external front, merchandise export growth remained subdued for the second consecutive quarter in Q2, while imports dropped, contrasting an increase in the previous quarter. Turning to the third quarter, growth likely remains solid. However, the non-oil private sector has lost some steam, with the PMI averaging lower in January–February than in Q2 and the sector’s staff levels dropping at the fastest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years in February. In addition, rising cases of coronavirus both within Egypt and abroad are a concern, particularly due to the potential impact on the tourism sector.Egypt Economic Growth
Growth should stabilize in FY 2020, after accelerating for the second year running in FY 2019. Particularly, higher government spending, improved ease of doing business and lower interest rates should support activity. However, the coronavirus outbreak, lingering global trade tensions and domestic security scares will weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.5% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% again in FY 2021.Egypt Economy Data
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Egypt Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 13.70 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 16.04 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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Egypt Economic News
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Egypt: Non-oil private sector operating conditions worsen significantly in March
April 5, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, fell in March at the fastest pace in over three years.
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Egypt: Government loosens purse strings as coronavirus rages
April 3, 2020
On 26 March, the government approved its budget for fiscal year 2021, which starts in July.
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Egypt: Central Bank urgently acts to mitigate coronavirus risks
April 2, 2020
At its scheduled monetary policy meeting on 2 April, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left all interest rates unchanged, including the closely-watched overnight deposit rate, at 9.25%.
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Egypt: Inflation slows in February
March 10, 2020
Consumer prices were unchanged in February compared to the previous month, after rising 0.7% in January.
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Egypt: Non-oil private sector remains mired in a downturn in February
March 3, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, increased to 47.1 in February from 46.0 in January, indicating a less severe deterioration in business conditions—readings above 50 indicate an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease.
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