Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

Authorities are gradually opening up the economy again, after containment measures were imposed in March to slow the spread of coronavirus, which included the suspension of flights and the temporary closure of most businesses, in addition to nightly curfews. Since the end of April, shops have been allowed to open on weekends, and, since 4 May, hotels have been able to operate again with a maximum capacity of 25% until June, and 50% thereafter. Pointing to the economic effects of the coronavirus crisis, the non-oil private sector contracted in April at the fastest pace since current records began. Moreover, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves fell sharply in April as it propped up the pound. On the fiscal front, the IMF approved USD 2.8 billion in financial support for the government on 11 May, to help it plug financing gaps, and Parliament has approved new levies on petrol and diesel.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth will slow significantly in FY 2020, as activity suffers due to containment measures imposed from March. However, fiscal and monetary policy stimulus should mitigate the headwinds. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.5% in FY 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in FY 2021.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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Egypt Economic News

  • Egypt: Egypt PMI continues gradual recovery in June

    July 6, 2020

    Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, rose to 44.6 in June from 40.7 in May and marked a further recovery from the 29.7 reading in April, which remains the lowest on record since the current survey began in April 2011 and reflected the effects of Egypt’s first full month with strict coronavirus restrictions.

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  • Egypt: Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at June meeting

    June 25, 2020

    At its scheduled monetary policy meeting on 25 June, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left the overnight deposit, overnight lending, and main operation rates unchanged at 9.25%, 10.25% and 9.75%, respectively, as expected by most market analysts. The decision to keep rates unchanged in June came despite inflation slowing to 4.7% in May, which was down from 5.9% in April, the lowest reading in six months and further clear of the CBE’s Q4 CY 2020 target range of 6.0% to 12.0%.

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  • Egypt: Inflation slows in May, falling further below Central Bank target range

    June 10, 2020

    Consumer prices were broadly unchanged in May compared to the previous month, after increasing 1.3% in April.

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  • Egypt: Egypt PMI rebounds in May but remains in contraction territory

    June 3, 2020

    Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, rebounded to 40.7 in May from 29.7 in April, which had marked the lowest reading since the current survey began in April 2011 and reflected the effects of Egypt’s first full month with new social distancing measures in place aimed at reducing the spread of coronavirus.

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  • Egypt: Economic growth slows in January–March

    May 30, 2020

    The economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in the third quarter of FY 2020 (January–March 2020), according to estimates announced by the Ministry of Planning and Development on 30 May.

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