Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy likely slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 FY 2020, which ran from October to December, as suggested by a decrease in the quarter’s non-oil private sector PMI reading compared to the previous quarter. Non-oil private sector activity was hampered by weak demand, contributing to drops in employment in both November and December, boding poorly for the yet-to-be-announced unemployment rate in Q2, which previously ticked up in Q1. More positively, international reserves, which have been climbing since Egypt began the three-year IMF program in 2016, rose to USD 45.4 billion in December, the highest reading in at least a decade-and-a-half. In other news, the government announced in December that several international energy companies, including Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell, had been granted exploration rights in Egyptian waters, in a bid to boost the energy sector.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth should stabilize in FY 2020, after strengthening for the second year running in FY 2019. Particularly, higher government spending, improved ease of doing business and lower interest rates should support growth. However, lingering global trade tensions and domestic security scares will likely weigh on the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.6% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in FY 2021.

Egypt Economy Data

Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,4073,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.12.1
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.0-10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.189.393.1103108
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.710.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.510.110.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7110.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-37.3
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.459.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.916.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)15.016.720.117.631.3
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Egypt Facts

Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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