Egypt Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% yoy). PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand. Meanwhile, relatively low new Covid-19 cases through October and continued public spending initiatives bode well for activity in Q4. In other news, regional tensions have heightened regarding Ethiopia’s under-construction dam on the Nile river, with talks resuming in late October in an attempt to break the impasse over the operation and control of all-important water flows. In politics, polls opened on 24 October for the first of multiple rounds of voting in parliamentary elections. No significant shift in composition is expected, with the legislative body broadly lacking the powers to balance the authority of the president.
Egypt Economic GrowthIn FY 2021—which runs from July 2020 to June 2021—the economy is projected to slow further due to the ongoing effect of the pandemic and a weak external environment. A continued contraction in exports is set to weigh heavily on overall growth, while decelerating private consumption and public spending should also contribute to the slowdown. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in FY 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2022.
Egypt Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||13.70||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||16.04||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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Egypt Economic News
February 4, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 4 February, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operation rates unchanged at 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75% respectively.
February 3, 2021
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—rose slightly to 48.7 in January from 48.2 in December.
January 11, 2021
Consumer prices decreased 0.42% in December over the previous month, which contrasted November's 0.82% increase.
January 5, 2021
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—sank to 48.2 in December from 50.9 in November.
December 24, 2020
At its monetary policy meeting on 24 December, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operation rates unchanged at 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75% respectively.