Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Annual economic growth should be decelerating in H2 FY 2022 (January–June 2022), due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Goods exports growth slowed in January–February over the previous quarter, while tighter financial conditions will be dampening domestic demand. Meanwhile, pressure on the current account is increasing due to the country’s reliance on food and fuel imports. Further, soaring food prices are denting consumers’ purchasing power and could heighten social tensions. That said, support from Gulf neighbors and buoyant Suez Canal revenue should be providing support. On the heels of Fitch Rating’s affirmation of the country’s ‘B+’ rating, Moody’s followed suit, but downgraded the outlook to negative. It cited mounting downside risks, including a smaller shock absorption capacity amid dwindling reserves.

Egypt Economic Growth

In FY 2023 (July 2022–June 2023) GDP growth will decelerate. Demand will ease amid tighter monetary policy, a weaker pound and soaring inflation. That said, support from the country’s Gulf allies and a seemingly imminent agreement with the IMF should provide some support. Potential food scarcity could stir domestic social tensions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 4.7% in FY 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in FY 2024.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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