Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

March 6, 2018

Economic signals are positive leading up to the 26-28 March presidential elections. Growth accelerated in the October–December period thanks to a robust external sector and solid pubic domestic demand, while the squeeze on living standards is beginning to ease, as inflation has plunged in recent months. Other signs are also encouraging; although the PMI hovered below the 50-point threshold in February, new orders grew, while international reserves soared in the same month and the unemployment rate dipped to a seven-year low in Q4. In mid-February, a USD 15 billion agreement with Israel was reached, which will see the country export around 64 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Egypt over ten years. This will help satisfy buoyant domestic demand and support Egypt’s longer-term aim of adding value to gas imports by becoming an LNG export hub.

Egypt Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate in FY 2018. Investment will likely rise sharply, boosted by higher business sentiment and an improved regulatory environment—thanks in part to recent amendments to the capital markets law. In addition, the external sector will benefit from the weaker pound. However, the elevated debt burden and sizeable budget deficit could become pressing concerns if reform momentum ebbs. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to expand 4.7% in FY 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in FY 2019.

Egypt Economy Data

Population (million)82.484.686.889.090.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,3543,3803,4743,7173,724
GDP (USD bn)276286302331336
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.90.7-8.59.3-8.8
Unemployment Rate12.713.313.212.812.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.8-13.7-12.1-11.5-12.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation in %)12.418.915.818.639.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.711.710.111.123.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.19.510.110.413.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.366.957.157.8318.13
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.076.877.087.7110.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.7-2.2-0.9-3.7-5.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.1-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-34.1-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)59.257.760.261.357.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.17.6-3.4-14.7-15.9
Imports (annual variation in %)9.5-
International Reserves (USD)15.615.016.720.117.6
External Debt (% of GDP)12.415.115.314.516.6

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Egypt Facts

Bond Yield14.650.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate17.610.0 %Mar 15
Stock Market1,6410.53 %Mar 15

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