Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

The nascent recovery seemingly picked up pace in Q4 FY 2021 (April–June), with a preliminary estimate indicating that economic growth accelerated at the quickest rate since at least Q4 FY 2009, although the reading will have been flattered by a low base effect. Moving to the new fiscal year, the non-oil sector PMI averaged higher in July–August, albeit remaining mildly in contractionary territory, while merchandise exports and imports continued to expand robustly in July, pointing to healthier demand dynamics. That said, quickly rising daily infection rates, coupled with a sluggish vaccine drive, could lead to new restrictions and potentially temper activity ahead. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to withhold USD 130 million in security assistance to the country until human rights reforms are implemented. In other news, Egypt and Turkey recently pledged further talks in a bid to normalize relations.

Egypt Economic Growth

GDP growth should accelerate in FY 2022 (July 2021–June 2022) from the previous year’s pandemic-induced slowdown. Recovering investment and exports will spearhead the improvement, while the gradual removal of travel restrictions will support the tourism industry and broader activity in turn. The unpredictable evolution of the pandemic is a risk, however. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.0% in FY 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2023.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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