Egypt Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% yoy). PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand. Meanwhile, relatively low new Covid-19 cases through October and continued public spending initiatives bode well for activity in Q4. In other news, regional tensions have heightened regarding Ethiopia’s under-construction dam on the Nile river, with talks resuming in late October in an attempt to break the impasse over the operation and control of all-important water flows. In politics, polls opened on 24 October for the first of multiple rounds of voting in parliamentary elections. No significant shift in composition is expected, with the legislative body broadly lacking the powers to balance the authority of the president.
Egypt Economic GrowthIn FY 2021—which runs from July 2020 to June 2021—the economy is projected to slow further due to the ongoing effect of the pandemic and a weak external environment. A continued contraction in exports is set to weigh heavily on overall growth, while decelerating private consumption and public spending should also contribute to the slowdown. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in FY 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2022.
Egypt Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||13.70||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||16.04||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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Egypt Economic News
November 12, 2020
At its monetary policy meeting on 12 November, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut the overnight deposit, overnight lending and main operation rates by a further 50 basis points each, to 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75% respectively.
November 10, 2020
Consumer prices increased 1.83% over the previous month in October, picking up from September's 0.29% rise.
November 3, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—increased to 51.4 in October from 50.4 in September.
November 1, 2020
The economy contracted 1.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of FY 2020 (April–June 2020), according to estimates announced by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.
October 8, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.27% in September over the previous month, contrasting the 0.15% drop recorded in August.