Egypt Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020
Preliminary data showed that the economy contracted in Q2, as the pandemic and associated lockdown measures impaired activity. GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.8% for the fiscal year 2020 (July 2019 to June 2020), having increased 5.6% in the July–December period: Collapsing tourism, slumping gas prices and spiking unemployment will have all weighed on activity. Turning to the new fiscal year, the continued reopening of the economy and resumption of international travel bode well for an uptick in activity. PMI data for July–August revealed expanding output and new business, despite the headline figures indicating mild contractions in overall conditions. Meanwhile, on 31 August, Moody’s reaffirmed both its B2 credit rating and stable outlook for Egypt, citing effective economic policies, strong foreign exchange holdings and relatively low levels of foreign-denominated debt.Egypt Economic Growth
Economic growth is projected to slow further in FY 2021—which runs from July 2020 to June 2021—as the prolonged impact of the pandemic restrains household spending and inhibits the external sector. Furthermore, decelerating growth in government spending should add to the slowdown somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in FY 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in FY 2022.Egypt Economy Data
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Egypt Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 13.70 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 16.04 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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Egypt Economic News
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Egypt: Inflation plunges to lowest level since October 2019 in August
September 10, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.15% in August over the previous month, swinging from July's 0.38% rise.
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Egypt: PMI dips marginally in August, remaining in contractionary territory
September 3, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—inched down to 49.4 in August from 49.6 in July.
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Egypt: Central Bank maintains key rates unchanged at August meeting
August 13, 2020
At its monetary policy meeting on 13 August, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) maintained the overnight deposit, overnight lending, and main operation rates unchanged at 9.25%, 10.25% and 9.75%, respectively, as expected by most market analysts. The decision to stand pat in August continued the Bank’s wait-and-see approach, following 300 basis points of rate cuts in March as the coronavirus pandemic and related containment measures hit economic activity.
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Egypt: Inflation drops to lowest level since November 2019 in July
August 10, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.38% in July over the previous month, coming in below the 0.08% increase logged in June.
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Egypt: Egypt PMI marches towards recovery in July
August 5, 2020
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, rose to 49.6 in July from 44.6 in June, marking a further recovery from the 29.7 reading in April, which remains the lowest point on record since the current survey began in April 2011 and reflected the effects of Egypt’s first full month with strict coronavirus restrictions.
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