Egypt Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Annual economic growth should be decelerating in H2 FY 2022 (January–June 2022), due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Goods exports growth slowed in January–February over the previous quarter, while tighter financial conditions will be dampening domestic demand. Meanwhile, pressure on the current account is increasing due to the country’s reliance on food and fuel imports. Further, soaring food prices are denting consumers’ purchasing power and could heighten social tensions. That said, support from Gulf neighbors and buoyant Suez Canal revenue should be providing support. On the heels of Fitch Rating’s affirmation of the country’s ‘B+’ rating, Moody’s followed suit, but downgraded the outlook to negative. It cited mounting downside risks, including a smaller shock absorption capacity amid dwindling reserves.
Egypt Economic GrowthIn FY 2023 (July 2022–June 2023) GDP growth will decelerate. Demand will ease amid tighter monetary policy, a weaker pound and soaring inflation. That said, support from the country’s Gulf allies and a seemingly imminent agreement with the IMF should provide some support. Potential food scarcity could stir domestic social tensions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 4.7% in FY 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in FY 2024.
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Egypt Economic News
May 19, 2022
At its monetary policy meeting on 19 May, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) increased all of its key rates by 200 basis points, bringing the overnight deposit, the overnight lending and main operations rates to 11.25%, 12.25% and 11.75%, respectively.
May 10, 2022
Consumer prices increased 3.26% over the previous month in April, picking up from March's 2.25% rise.
May 8, 2022
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—came in at 46.9 in April, up marginally from March's 21-month low of 46.5.
April 10, 2022
Consumer prices rose 2.21% in March over the previous month, picking up from February’s 1.61% increase.
April 5, 2022
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector—fell to a 21-month low of 46.5, down from February’s 48.1.