Egypt Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Annual economic growth should be decelerating in H2 FY 2022 (January–June 2022), due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Goods exports growth slowed in January–February over the previous quarter, while tighter financial conditions will be dampening domestic demand. Meanwhile, pressure on the current account is increasing due to the country’s reliance on food and fuel imports. Further, soaring food prices are denting consumers’ purchasing power and could heighten social tensions. That said, support from Gulf neighbors and buoyant Suez Canal revenue should be providing support. On the heels of Fitch Rating’s affirmation of the country’s ‘B+’ rating, Moody’s followed suit, but downgraded the outlook to negative. It cited mounting downside risks, including a smaller shock absorption capacity amid dwindling reserves.
Egypt Economic GrowthIn FY 2023 (July 2022–June 2023) GDP growth will decelerate. Demand will ease amid tighter monetary policy, a weaker pound and soaring inflation. That said, support from the country’s Gulf allies and a seemingly imminent agreement with the IMF should provide some support. Potential food scarcity could stir domestic social tensions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 4.7% in FY 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in FY 2024.
Egypt Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||13.70||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||16.04||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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Egypt Economic News
January 10, 2023
Inflation accelerated to 21.3% in December, up from November’s 18.8%, moving further above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 5.0–9.0% target band—where it has been for the past 10 months.
January 4, 2023
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, rose to 47.2 in December, up from November’s five-month low of 45.4.
December 22, 2022
At its last scheduled meeting of 2022 on 22 December, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) delivered a whopping 300 basis point hike, surprising markets, which had expected a 200 basis point increase.
December 10, 2022
Inflation increased to 18.8% in November from October’s 16.2%, moving further above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 5.0–9.0% target band—where it has been for the past nine months.
December 5, 2022
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, plunged to a five-month low of 45.4 in November, down from October’s 47.7.