Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% yoy). PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand. Meanwhile, relatively low new Covid-19 cases through October and continued public spending initiatives bode well for activity in Q4. In other news, regional tensions have heightened regarding Ethiopia’s under-construction dam on the Nile river, with talks resuming in late October in an attempt to break the impasse over the operation and control of all-important water flows. In politics, polls opened on 24 October for the first of multiple rounds of voting in parliamentary elections. No significant shift in composition is expected, with the legislative body broadly lacking the powers to balance the authority of the president.

Egypt Economic Growth

In FY 2021—which runs from July 2020 to June 2021—the economy is projected to slow further due to the ongoing effect of the pandemic and a weak external environment. A continued contraction in exports is set to weigh heavily on overall growth, while decelerating private consumption and public spending should also contribute to the slowdown. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.6% in FY 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in FY 2022.

Egypt Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.090.294.897.099.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,7383,6912,4722,5873,056
GDP (USD bn)333333234251303
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.44.34.25.35.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.3-0.12.17.22.1
Unemployment Rate12.812.511.89.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.0-12.0-10.7-9.5-8.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)93.110310897.390.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.639.020.913.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.123.321.912.07.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.413.829.514.49.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.2514.7518.7516.7512.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.8318.1317.7817.9116.05
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.7110.0917.8417.8116.82
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.6-6.0-6.1-2.4-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.1-19.8-14.4-6.0-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-39.1-38.7-37.3-37.3-38.0
Exports (USD billion)22.218.721.725.828.5
Imports (USD billion)61.357.459.063.166.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.7-15.916.218.910.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.9-6.42.87.05.4
International Reserves (USD)20.117.631.344.344.5
External Debt (% of GDP)14.416.733.736.935.9

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Egypt Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield13.700.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate16.040.0 %Jan 01

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