Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

The economy seems to have kept pace in the first quarter. Household spending likely remained resilient despite a surge in unemployment: Retail sales growth accelerated, on average, in January–February, while consumers were markedly more optimistic in the quarter. Exports, however, contracted in Q1 on shrinking sales of oil. Meanwhile, the independent Fiscal Rule Committee relaxed its fiscal deficit targets for this year and next to account for the added burden of Venezuelan migrants on the public purse. The three leading credit rating agencies subsequently expressed concern that frequent changes to the rule could undermine the credibility of fiscal policy. In the political arena, the Lower House rejected President Duque’s attempts to roll back aspects of the peace accord in early April, thus reaffirming the challenges of enforcing the ruling party’s mandate in a deeply divided Congress.

Colombia Economic Growth

Growth is set to climb this year on an acceleration in exports. Moreover, fixed investment should surge on infrastructure and oil sector investments, although the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts will likely cause domestic demand to decelerate slightly ahead. Downside risks stem from uncertainties over the pace of fiscal reform and challenging external conditions. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.490.0 %May 13
Exchange Rate3,305-0.17 %May 13
Stock Market12,363-0.66 %May 13

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