Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

September 10, 2019

The economy lost some momentum in the second quarter, after growing at the fastest pace in over three years in Q1. Private consumption sped up slightly amid lower unemployment in the quarter, as did capital spending on the back of increased investment in infrastructure. That said, public expenditure eased sharply on belt-tightening measures, weighing on domestic demand. Moreover, the external sector dragged more heavily on the overall expansion than in Q1 as exports grew far more slowly than imports. Turning to the third quarter, available data points to a further easing of activity. Although the manufacturing PMI recovered strongly in July, it fell in August and hinted at an overall slowdown in the sector. Furthermore, merchandise exports plunged more sharply in July on lower shipments of fuels. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped in the same month, which, coupled with consumers remaining pessimistic, bodes ill for household spending at the start of Q3.

Colombia Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to pick up this year on the back of robust domestic demand. In particular, investment activity is seen gathering pace amid increased outlays in infrastructure and oil-industry projects, while consumer spending is expected to remain strong. Uncertainty over the pace of fiscal reform and commodity price volatility are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,322
GDP (USD bn)382381293283312
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.11.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.62.4
Investment (annual variation in %)6.09.92.8-2.91.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.31.52.04.1-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.1
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.4-3.0-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.138.142.943.844.9
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.97.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.6-12.0-10.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.2-4.6-13.5-9.1-4.6
Exports (USD billion)60.356.938.634.139.7
Imports (USD billion)57.161.552.143.244.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.1-5.6-32.2-11.616.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.87.8-15.4-16.92.3
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.838.242.540.0

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.860.0 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate3,396-0.17 %Sep 04
Stock Market12,686-0.66 %Sep 04

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