Colombia Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020Following an unprecedented GDP drop in Q2, available data suggests that recovering activity hit a roadblock in Q3, as repeated extensions of the nationwide quarantine until end-August pummeled domestic activity. After three consecutive months of moderation, the contraction in industrial output sharpened again in August amid reduced manufacturing of automotive parts and travel accessories. Moreover, in the same month, retail sales declined at a much faster pace than in July, which, coupled with a still-elevated unemployment rate in Q3, hints that household consumption remained downbeat in the quarter. That said, looking at Q4, the recovery seems to be gaining some steam again. Consumer confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month in October, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to a three-month high in the same month on the back of quickening output and a rebound in new orders.
Colombia Economic GrowthThe economy is seen contracting for the first time in over two decades this year due to the Covid-19 shock, before rebounding in 2021 on recovering household and capital spending as well as strengthening foreign demand. That said, uncertainty regarding the course of the pandemic and still-subdued prices for oil—the country’s main export—cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.6% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 3.6%.
Colombia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
December 1, 2020
On an annual basis, merchandise exports contracted 21.0% in October, falling at a faster pace than September’s 17.5% drop.
December 1, 2020
The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.1 in November, up from October’s 51.7.
November 27, 2020
On 27 November, the Board of Directors of Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) unanimously decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at its historic low of 1.75%.
November 17, 2020
According to preliminary data, GDP declined at a softer pace of 9.0% on an annual basis in Q3, following Q2’s 15.8% record-breaking drop, as the relaxation of Covid-19 measures allowed for the gradual resumption of economic activity.
November 13, 2020
Industrial activity declined at a significantly softer pace of 3.0% in annual terms in September, following August’s 10.3% dive and marking the best reading since February.