Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

September 15, 2020

GDP fell at a historic pace in the second quarter as a nationwide quarantine hammered nearly all areas of the economy. Household spending nosedived amid business closures and a spike in the unemployment rate, while fixed investment also collapsed. In addition, exports were hit by halted foreign demand, supply chain disruptions, low oil prices and travel restrictions. Turning to Q3, lingering Covid-19 containment measures, especially in large cities, are likely to have kept activity depressed, although the lifting of some restrictions is expected to have fueled an improvement. In August, the manufacturing PMI pointed to expansion for the third month in a row and consumer confidence rose once again. In addition, fewer new Covid-19 cases allowed authorities to roll back more restrictions on 1 September, allowing domestic travel to resume and restaurants to reopen nationwide, boding well for activity.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is seen contracting at the sharpest pace in modern history this year, hit by the pandemic. Months of restrictions have hammered the domestic economy, while exports will remain subdued due to halted tourism and low oil prices. Weak finances hinder the government’s ability to fuel a turnaround and the risk of losing its investment-grade credit rating looms. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 6.3% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists see GDP growing 4.6%.

Colombia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)48.248.749.349.850.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,0755,8086,3226,6896,421
GDP (USD bn)293283312333324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.11.42.53.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.41.21.13.44.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.41.62.33.74.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.4-2.91.91.54.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.04.1-0.53.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.0-0.15.48.1
Unemployment Rate8.99.29.49.710.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.943.844.948.247.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.56.97.15.08.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.74.13.23.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.07.54.33.23.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.52.23.32.36.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.504.754.254.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-26.518.213.6-2.919.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,1753,0022,9853,2483,287
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,7493,0522,9522,9583,283
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9-4.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.1-13.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1-8.5
Exports (USD billion)38.634.139.844.442.4
Imports (USD billion)52.143.244.249.650.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-11.716.811.7-4.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.4-16.92.312.12.5
International Reserves (USD)46.746.747.648.453.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.242.540.039.642.7

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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