Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

The economy is reeling from dual shocks from the impact of Covid-19 and historically low oil prices. Growth slid to a three-year low in the first quarter, dragged down by plunging exports and investment. Moreover, the economy is expected to have deteriorated further in April, when the economic effects of the health crisis amplified. Consumer confidence plummeted to a record low in the month. On 4 May, the fiscal rule advisory committee once again widened the government deficit limit for this year, increasing it to 6.1% of GDP to provide authorities further space to enact measures to mitigate economic damage and considering the expected drastic loss of revenues. However, strained public accounts are taking a toll on Colombia’s credit rating, with Fitch Rating’s recently revising its rating down to BBB- and Standard and Poor’s revising its outlook from stable to negative.

Colombia Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting for the first time since 2000 this year, as the economy reels from domestic disruptions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, halted external demand and historically low global oil prices. Risks to the outlook remain high, stemming from a long continuation of low oil prices and the possibility of losing its important investment grade status. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 3.1% in 2020, which is down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists see GDP growing 3.6%.

Colombia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)48.248.749.349.850.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,0755,8086,3226,6896,421
GDP (USD bn)293283312333324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.11.42.53.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.41.21.23.94.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.41.62.44.04.6
Investment (annual variation in %)2.8-2.91.91.64.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.04.1-0.53.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.0-0.15.48.1
Unemployment Rate8.99.29.49.710.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.943.844.948.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)12.56.97.15.08.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.74.13.23.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.07.54.33.23.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.52.23.32.36.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.504.754.254.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-26.518.213.6-2.919.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,1753,0022,9853,2483,287
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,7493,0522,9522,9583,283
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1-  
Exports (USD billion)38.634.139.844.4-  
Imports (USD billion)52.143.244.249.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-11.716.811.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.4-16.92.312.1-  
International Reserves (USD)46.746.747.648.453.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.242.540.039.6-  

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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