Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

April 17, 2018

In 2017, the economy grew at the slowest pace in eight years owing to persistently weak domestic demand. Available data, however, points to a revival in growth at the start of the year, suggesting a turning point for the economy. Retail sales accelerated sharply in January, expanding more than 10-fold in annual terms from December. Moderating inflation, which fell to within the Central Bank’s target range for the first time in January 2018 since September 2017 and dropped to the lowest level in three and a half years in March, has bolstered consumers’ purchasing power, translating into a turnaround for the retail sector. However, a loss of confidence among consumers in February suggests growth in private consumption weakened slightly in the month. Moreover, exports picked up mildly in January but lost considerable ground in February. Primary run-offs for the upcoming presidential election confirmed Iván Duque, from ex-President Álvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático party, as the main contender on the right, and Gustavo Petro on the left. Duque is currently leading in the polls.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy should enter the recovery phase this year, thanks to stronger domestic demand and an upturn in crude oil prices. Moreover, increased oil exploration activities should help boost growth in the medium-term. Dependence on oil, however, leaves the economy exposed to the same external shocks that induced a slowdown in 2015–2016. Investment in the non-oil sector will be crucial to attaining sustainable growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.1-  -  -  
Population (million)46.647.1-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,060-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,060-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)369380-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)369380-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.9-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.9-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.0-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.0-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.6-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.6-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.8-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.8-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.8-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.8-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.7-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.7-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate10.49.6-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate10.49.6-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.9-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.9-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.7-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.7-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.9-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.9-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.0-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.1-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.1-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.25-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.25-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,930-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,930-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,869-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,869-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)60.158.8-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)60.158.8-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)56.156.6-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)56.156.6-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.9-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.9-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)37.543.6-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)37.543.6-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.2-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.2-  -  -  

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.460.0 %Apr 20
Exchange Rate2,760-0.17 %Apr 20
Stock Market12,368-0.66 %Apr 20

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