Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

Following an unprecedented GDP drop in Q2, available data suggests that recovering activity hit a roadblock in Q3, as repeated extensions of the nationwide quarantine until end-August pummeled domestic activity. After three consecutive months of moderation, the contraction in industrial output sharpened again in August amid reduced manufacturing of automotive parts and travel accessories. Moreover, in the same month, retail sales declined at a much faster pace than in July, which, coupled with a still-elevated unemployment rate in Q3, hints that household consumption remained downbeat in the quarter. That said, looking at Q4, the recovery seems to be gaining some steam again. Consumer confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month in October, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to a three-month high in the same month on the back of quickening output and a rebound in new orders.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is seen contracting for the first time in over two decades this year due to the Covid-19 shock, before rebounding in 2021 on recovering household and capital spending as well as strengthening foreign demand. That said, uncertainty regarding the course of the pandemic and still-subdued prices for oil—the country’s main export—cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.6% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 3.6%.

Colombia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)48.248.749.349.850.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,0755,8086,3226,6896,421
GDP (USD bn)293283312333324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.11.42.53.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.41.21.13.44.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.41.62.33.74.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.4-2.91.91.54.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.04.1-0.53.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.0-0.15.48.1
Unemployment Rate8.99.29.49.710.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.943.844.948.247.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.56.97.15.08.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.74.13.23.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.07.54.33.23.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.52.23.32.36.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.504.754.254.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-26.518.213.6-2.919.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,1753,0022,9853,2483,287
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,7493,0522,9522,9583,283
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9-4.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.1-13.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1-8.5
Exports (USD billion)38.634.139.844.442.4
Imports (USD billion)52.143.244.249.650.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-11.716.811.7-4.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.4-16.92.312.12.5
International Reserves (USD)46.746.747.648.453.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.242.540.039.642.7

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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