Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

June 12, 2018

Colombia is gearing up for the second round of the presidential race to be held on 17 June, in which right-wing candidate Iván Duque will face off left-wing contender Gustavo Petro. Duque, a business-friendly candidate, is still the favorite to clinch the presidency. On the economic front, the recovery from the oil price shock of 2014–2015 is underway. The latest release shows GDP expanded 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, an acceleration from the previous quarter. Average growth in both retail sales and industrial production rebounded in Q1. Retail sales picked up throughout the quarter against a steady rise in consumer confidence and low levels of inflation. Exports continued growing at a strong rate in the first quarter, albeit losing some pace from the fourth quarter. Going into Q2, consumer confidence entered positive territory for the first time in over two years in April.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to speed up this year, with growth being buoyed in the medium-term by expansions in oil exploration activities, which should benefit from higher oil prices. That said, reliance on oil exports will leave the economy exposed to the same kinds of external shocks that triggered a slowdown in 2015–2016. Investment in the non-oil sector will therefore be essential to boosting growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.620.0 %Jun 14
Exchange Rate2,863-0.17 %Jun 14
Stock Market12,282-0.66 %Jun 14

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