Colombia Economic Outlook
October 11, 2021Following a robust expansion in annual terms in Q2, available data suggests that positive dynamics carried into Q3. Economic activity continued to grow at a double-digit rate at the outset of the quarter, with industrial output and retail trade both expanding markedly in July. Moreover, a notable decline in the unemployment rate in August—the lowest print in over a year—coupled with improved consumer sentiment in July–September, hints at healthy consumer spending. That said, mounting inflationary pressures are likely to have capped household consumption somewhat. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose markedly in September, further highlighting improved domestic dynamics. In other news, on 6 October Moody’s affirmed the country’s credit rating at “Baa2” and upgraded its outlook from negative to stable, citing the government’s effective macroeconomic policies that promote growth and fiscal consolidation.
Colombia Economic GrowthThe economy is seen rebounding strongly this year on the back of recovering domestic and foreign demand, before growth moderates next year, largely due to a fading base effect. A projected increase in external debt levels, the country’s weak public finances and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2022 presidential elections pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 7.5% in 2021. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 3.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Colombia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
October 7, 2021
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index came in at minus 3.0 in September, improving from minus 8.2 in August, logging the highest reading since January 2020.
October 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.38% in September over the previous month, moderating from August’s 0.45% increase.
October 1, 2021
Merchandise exports grew 28.4% year-on-year in August, accelerating mildly from July’s 27.4% expansion.
October 1, 2021
The seasonally-adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Davividenda—came in at 55.5 in September, up from August's 53.2.
September 30, 2021
At its 30 September meeting, the Board of Directors of Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) decided to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% from the record low of 1.75%—where it had been since September last year.