Colombia Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022GDP growth beat market expectations in Q1, but was still lower than that seen last year. The manufacturing plus retail and wholesale trade sectors grew strongly, while the agricultural sector contracted. Turning to Q2, the data paints a mixed picture. The manufacturing PMI averaged higher in April–May than it did in Q1, thanks to robust domestic demand, with consumer confidence ticking up in April–May. That said, inflation remained at a close to 22-year high in May and interest rates continue to rise, boding poorly for consumer spending. In politics, all eyes are on the presidential elections. In a dramatic development, Rodolfo Hernández, a 77-year-old right-wing populist, tripled his support in just over two months to reach the second round of the elections—to be held on 19 June—along with left-wing frontrunner Gustavo Petro.
Colombia Economic GrowthAfter growing 10.7% last year, growth will slow this year due to rising inflation and higher interest rates. This said, our panelists still see growth comfortably above its pre-pandemic average thanks to strong growth of investment and exports. Key risks include the presidential elections and commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.1% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, panelists see GDP growth at 2.9%.
Colombia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
December 1, 2022
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.3 in November from October's 50.0.
November 16, 2022
Merchandise exports shot up 16.6% over the same month last year in October, on the heels of September’s 26.0% jump.
November 15, 2022
Economic growth moderated in the third quarter, with GDP increasing 7.1% on an annual basis (Q2: +12.6% year on year).
November 11, 2022
Manufacturing production grew 6.9% year on year in September (August: +9.1% yoy).The deceleration was largely due to a dip in steel and iron production.
November 8, 2022
The Colombian peso has fallen by over 11% against the U.S. dollar over the last month—reaching record lows—and 20.0% year to date.