Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

Following a robust expansion in annual terms in Q2, available data suggests that positive dynamics carried into Q3. Economic activity continued to grow at a double-digit rate at the outset of the quarter, with industrial output and retail trade both expanding markedly in July. Moreover, a notable decline in the unemployment rate in August—the lowest print in over a year—coupled with improved consumer sentiment in July–September, hints at healthy consumer spending. That said, mounting inflationary pressures are likely to have capped household consumption somewhat. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose markedly in September, further highlighting improved domestic dynamics. In other news, on 6 October Moody’s affirmed the country’s credit rating at “Baa2” and upgraded its outlook from negative to stable, citing the government’s effective macroeconomic policies that promote growth and fiscal consolidation.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is seen rebounding strongly this year on the back of recovering domestic and foreign demand, before growth moderates next year, largely due to a fading base effect. A projected increase in external debt levels, the country’s weak public finances and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2022 presidential elections pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 7.5% in 2021. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 3.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Colombia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)48.248.749.349.850.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,0755,8086,3226,6896,421
GDP (USD bn)293283312333324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.11.42.53.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.41.21.13.44.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.41.62.33.74.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.4-2.91.91.54.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.04.1-0.53.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.0-0.15.48.1
Unemployment Rate8.99.29.49.710.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.943.844.948.247.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.56.97.15.08.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.74.13.23.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.07.54.33.23.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.52.23.32.36.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.504.754.254.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-26.518.213.6-2.919.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,1753,0022,9853,2483,287
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,7493,0522,9522,9583,283
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9-4.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.1-13.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1-8.5
Exports (USD billion)38.634.139.844.442.4
Imports (USD billion)52.143.244.249.650.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-11.716.811.7-4.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.4-16.92.312.12.5
International Reserves (USD)46.746.747.648.453.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.242.540.039.642.7

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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