Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

January 21, 2020

Available data hints that the economy likely sustained a solid pace of expansion in the final quarter of 2019, after growing at the fastest pace in four years in the third quarter. The manufacturing PMI improved in the fourth quarter amid upbeat business sentiment, while retail sales growth maintained a healthy pace in October–November against the backdrop of falling unemployment, suggesting stronger household consumption. Meanwhile, on 20 December, Congress approved a revised version of the December 2018 tax reform, which had been declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in October and thus forced the government to resubmit the proposal. Provisions in the newly passed law included gradually cutting the corporate tax rate from 33% to 30% by 2022, which ought to stimulate investment. It also included a VAT rebate for the poorest 20% of the population–likely in response to large street protests that took place in December–, which could boost household consumption going forward.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to remain solid this year on the back of robust growth in fixed investment amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal exemptions, and still-healthy private consumption. However, social unrest and political tensions, which could hurt consumer and investor confidence, and a fairly high external debt burden pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 3.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% again in 2021.

Colombia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,322
GDP (USD bn)382381293283312
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.11.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.62.4
Investment (annual variation in %)6.09.92.8-2.91.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.31.52.04.1-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.1
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.4-3.0-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.138.142.943.844.9
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.97.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.6-12.0-10.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.2-4.6-13.5-9.1-4.6
Exports (USD billion)60.356.938.634.139.7
Imports (USD billion)57.161.552.143.244.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.1-5.6-32.2-11.616.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.87.8-15.4-16.92.3
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.838.242.540.0

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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