Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

GDP growth beat market expectations in Q1, but was still lower than that seen last year. The manufacturing plus retail and wholesale trade sectors grew strongly, while the agricultural sector contracted. Turning to Q2, the data paints a mixed picture. The manufacturing PMI averaged higher in April–May than it did in Q1, thanks to robust domestic demand, with consumer confidence ticking up in April–May. That said, inflation remained at a close to 22-year high in May and interest rates continue to rise, boding poorly for consumer spending. In politics, all eyes are on the presidential elections. In a dramatic development, Rodolfo Hernández, a 77-year-old right-wing populist, tripled his support in just over two months to reach the second round of the elections—to be held on 19 June—along with left-wing frontrunner Gustavo Petro.

Colombia Economic Growth

After growing 10.7% last year, growth will slow this year due to rising inflation and higher interest rates. This said, our panelists still see growth comfortably above its pre-pandemic average thanks to strong growth of investment and exports. Key risks include the presidential elections and commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.1% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, panelists see GDP growth at 2.9%.

Colombia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)48.248.749.349.850.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,0755,8086,3226,6896,421
GDP (USD bn)293283312333324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.11.42.53.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.41.21.13.44.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.41.62.33.74.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.4-2.91.91.54.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.04.1-0.53.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.0-0.15.48.1
Unemployment Rate8.99.29.49.710.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.943.844.948.247.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.56.97.15.08.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.74.13.23.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.07.54.33.23.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.52.23.32.36.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.504.754.254.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-26.518.213.6-2.919.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,1753,0022,9853,2483,287
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,7493,0522,9522,9583,283
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9-4.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.1-13.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1-8.5
Exports (USD billion)38.634.139.844.442.4
Imports (USD billion)52.143.244.249.650.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-11.716.811.7-4.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.4-16.92.312.12.5
International Reserves (USD)46.746.747.648.453.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.242.540.039.642.7

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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