Colombia Economic Outlook
September 15, 2020GDP fell at a historic pace in the second quarter as a nationwide quarantine hammered nearly all areas of the economy. Household spending nosedived amid business closures and a spike in the unemployment rate, while fixed investment also collapsed. In addition, exports were hit by halted foreign demand, supply chain disruptions, low oil prices and travel restrictions. Turning to Q3, lingering Covid-19 containment measures, especially in large cities, are likely to have kept activity depressed, although the lifting of some restrictions is expected to have fueled an improvement. In August, the manufacturing PMI pointed to expansion for the third month in a row and consumer confidence rose once again. In addition, fewer new Covid-19 cases allowed authorities to roll back more restrictions on 1 September, allowing domestic travel to resume and restaurants to reopen nationwide, boding well for activity.
Colombia Economic GrowthThe economy is seen contracting at the sharpest pace in modern history this year, hit by the pandemic. Months of restrictions have hammered the domestic economy, while exports will remain subdued due to halted tourism and low oil prices. Weak finances hinder the government’s ability to fuel a turnaround and the risk of losing its investment-grade credit rating looms. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 6.3% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists see GDP growing 4.6%.
Colombia Economy Data
5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
September 14, 2020
Industrial production fell 8.5% in year-on-year terms in July, a softer decline than June’s 9.8% drop.
September 8, 2020
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence came in at minus 25.4 in August, markedly above July’s minus 32.7.
September 5, 2020
Consumer prices dipped 0.01% over the previous month in August, after they were unchanged in July.
September 1, 2020
The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.2 in August, markedly down from July’s 54.2.
August 31, 2020
On an annual basis, merchandise exports contracted 21.7% in July, less severely compared to last month (June: -26.4% yoy).