Colombia Economic Outlook
January 18, 2022Incoming data for Q4 suggests that conditions continued to improve, but at a slower pace. In October, economic activity expanded at the softest pace in eight months in annual terms, and manufacturing output growth also moderated from the prior month. Additionally, manufacturing business conditions improved at a slightly slower pace in Q4 compared to Q3. More positively, the unemployment rate dropped to a near two-year low in November, boding well for consumption. On 17 December, the World Bank approved a USD 300 million loan to strengthen the country’s resilience to climate change and health emergencies. In other news, effective from 1 January, the government increased the minimum wage by 10%—the largest rise in decades. The populist measure—announced five months before the presidential elections—could have implications for inflation, monetary policy and the pace of job creation.
Colombia Economic GrowthEconomic growth is set to moderate markedly this year, although robust private and capital spending, as well as healthy exports, will sustain activity. Downside risks to the outlook remain, namely lingering uncertainty over the pandemic, weakened public finances, a still-loose labor market and uncertainty over the 29 May presidential elections. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, panelists see GDP growth at 3.2%.
Colombia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
January 14, 2022
Manufacturing production grew 13.9% year-on-year in November, accelerating from October’s 10.2% increase.
January 11, 2022
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index came in at minus 7.0 in December, deteriorating from November's minus 1.4.
January 5, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.73% in December over the previous month, accelerating from November’s 0.49% increase, and logging the strongest increase in prices since May.
January 3, 2022
The seasonally-adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Davivienda—fell to 53.1 in December from November’s 54.9.
December 31, 2021
Merchandise exports expanded 58.0% year-on-year in November, accelerating markedly from October’s 43.5% increase.