Colombia Economic Outlook
October 9, 2018Available data for the third quarter suggests that the economy kept pace from the previous quarter. The industrial sector accelerated in July and while moderating from the previous month, export growth remained robust in August. On the downside, retail sales growth tumbled to a seven-month low in July as the unemployment rate climbed and inflationary pressures remained largely stable. In addition, the manufacturing PMI fell for the second consecutive month in September, indicating downbeat prospects for the industrial sector. Moreover, consumers were less upbeat about both their personal financial situation and general economic conditions. On the fiscal front, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla stated that a draft of the government’s tax reform would likely be tabled for review by Congress in October. One of the key proposals of the reform include tax cuts for corporations. While the Ministry of Finance has announced a cutback in overall government spending to plug a funding shortfall in next year’s budget, plans to slash corporate tax rates puts Colombia’s fiscal position at risk.
Colombia Economic GrowthIncreased investment in the extractive sector and higher oil prices should support a faster pace of expansion next year. Growth should also be buoyed by stronger consumer spending against the backdrop of stable inflationary pressures. While government spending is expected to weaken on planned fiscal tightening, the tax reform’s proposal to slash corporate taxes will likely pose challenges in meeting the fiscal target unless they are offset with new sources of revenue. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.7% in 2018 and 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Colombia Economy Data
5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.10||0.0 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||3,097||-0.17 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||12,346||-0.66 %||Oct 12|
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Colombia Economic News
October 5, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), the annual pace of expansion in exports moderated to 13.1% in August from 16.2% in July.
October 3, 2018
Colombia’s manufacturing sector lost ground again in September, with the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 52.8 from 53.3 in August.
September 28, 2018
At its 28 September Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) unanimously decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, where it has been since April this year.
September 17, 2018
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index dropped to 4.7 points in August from 9.8 points in July, moving closer to the critical zero-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism among consumers.
September 14, 2018
According to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 14 September, the industrial sector accelerated in July, with output growing 3.5% over the same month of the previous year.