Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

March 17, 2020

The economy lost some steam in the fourth quarter of last year on softer fixed investment and household consumption growth, yet remained solid overall. Meanwhile, incoming figures for early 2020 are mixed, with downside risks mounting amid the spread of the coronavirus: Although the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in January–February from Q4, it dropped in February on slowing new orders, while consumer confidence improved in January as consumers were less pessimistic about their personal finances. However, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and the oil price shock have caused the peso to plunge to record lows and could pressure external and fiscal revenues. In light of this, on 11 March the government announced measures to alleviate the tourism and aviation sectors, including a COP 250 billion credit line subsidized by the government, while the Central Bank increased market liquidity by, among other measures, expanding the quota of auctions to USD 4.4 billion.

Colombia Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to stay solid this year on the back of solid fixed investment growth amid lower corporate taxes and fiscal exemptions. However, downside risks to the outlook have mounted due to lower oil prices and adverse effects of the coronavirus outbreak, as well as social unrest and political tensions on the domestic front. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 3.0% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2021.

Colombia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)47.748.248.749.349.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9926,0755,8086,3226,689
GDP (USD bn)381293283312333
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.73.02.11.42.5
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)6.22.41.21.23.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.63.41.62.44.0
Investment (annual variation in %)9.92.8-2.91.91.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.52.04.1-0.53.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.46.42.0-0.15.4
Unemployment Rate9.18.99.29.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-3.0-4.0-3.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.142.943.844.948.2
Money (annual variation in %)9.112.56.97.15.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.76.85.74.13.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.95.07.54.33.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.05.52.23.32.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.505.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.0-26.518.213.6-2.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,3893,1753,0022,9853,248
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0032,7493,0522,9522,958
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-6.3-4.3-3.3-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-19.8-18.6-12.0-10.2-13.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-13.5-9.2-4.5-5.1
Exports (USD billion)56.938.634.139.844.4
Imports (USD billion)61.552.143.244.249.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.6-32.2-11.716.811.7
Imports (annual variation in %)7.8-15.4-16.92.312.1
International Reserves (USD)47.346.746.747.648.4
External Debt (% of GDP)26.838.242.540.039.6

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.080.0 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate3,287-0.17 %Jan 01

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