Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

September 12, 2017

The economy accelerated only marginally in Q2 from the tepid growth recorded in Q1 as still-weak domestic demand once again prevented a definitive expansion. In fact, the uptick in total consumption was mostly propped up by a jump in government stimulus, which acted as crucial support for the economy as household spending again failed to fully recover. That said, bright spots in Q2 included a rebound in fixed investment—which is expected to contribute positively to growth this year after a dismal 2016—and another moderation in the contraction of exports as the mining sector further adjusted to low oil prices. Moreover, exports jumped by more than a third in July from a year earlier and consumer confidence hit its highest level of the year, both suggesting that the turnaround anticipated for H2 could already be underway.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.147.748.248.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,0305,801
GDP (USD bn)369380378291283
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.94.43.12.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.06.22.90.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.64.43.62.0
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.89.81.9-3.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.81.31.83.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.78.16.22.0
Unemployment Rate10.49.69.18.99.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.442.4
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.79.112.56.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.93.76.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.02.95.07.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.16.05.52.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.254.505.757.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.518.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,1753,002
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,7493,052
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.6-11.5
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.836.031.4
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.642.8
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.97.9-15.5-17.0
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.746.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.042.5

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.570.77 %Sep 21
Exchange Rate2,9150.83 %Sep 21
Stock Market11,075-0.03 %Sep 21

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Colombia Economic Growth

September 12, 2017

Following a dismal Q1, reviving fixed investment—partially driven by lower interest rates—and additional fiscal stimulus are expected to support economic growth this year. Although low oil prices will continue to cloud the outlook for this year, the government’s renewed commitment to fiscal responsibility bodes well for the economy’s medium-term health. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 1.8% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% next year.

Colombia Economic News

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