Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

October 9, 2018

Available data for the third quarter suggests that the economy kept pace from the previous quarter. The industrial sector accelerated in July and while moderating from the previous month, export growth remained robust in August. On the downside, retail sales growth tumbled to a seven-month low in July as the unemployment rate climbed and inflationary pressures remained largely stable. In addition, the manufacturing PMI fell for the second consecutive month in September, indicating downbeat prospects for the industrial sector. Moreover, consumers were less upbeat about both their personal financial situation and general economic conditions. On the fiscal front, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla stated that a draft of the government’s tax reform would likely be tabled for review by Congress in October. One of the key proposals of the reform include tax cuts for corporations. While the Ministry of Finance has announced a cutback in overall government spending to plug a funding shortfall in next year’s budget, plans to slash corporate tax rates puts Colombia’s fiscal position at risk.

Colombia Economic Growth

Increased investment in the extractive sector and higher oil prices should support a faster pace of expansion next year. Growth should also be buoyed by stronger consumer spending against the backdrop of stable inflationary pressures. While government spending is expected to weaken on planned fiscal tightening, the tax reform’s proposal to slash corporate taxes will likely pose challenges in meeting the fiscal target unless they are offset with new sources of revenue. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.7% in 2018 and 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.100.0 %Oct 12
Exchange Rate3,097-0.17 %Oct 12
Stock Market12,346-0.66 %Oct 12

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