Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

July 9, 2019

Available data suggests that the relatively weak dynamics of Q1 persisted in the second quarter. Retail sales growth eased in April, which, coupled with consumers turning more pessimistic, on average, in April–May compared to the first quarter, signals that private consumption lost some strength. Furthermore, industrial production contracted for the first time in over a year in April. This, alongside the manufacturing PMI entering contractionary territory in June, following fairly positive readings in April and May, hints at softer business activity in Q2. In other news, the government announced in early June that the original fiscal deficit targets of 2.4% and 2.2% of GDP will be maintained this year and next, respectively, despite being allowed to relax them to address the influx of Venezuelan migrants. Some concern remains, however, over the credibility of the pace of fiscal consolidation.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to gather some momentum this year, primarily on the back of upbeat capital spending on infrastructure and oil-sector projects, and solid private consumption. That said, fiscal tightening and slower export growth are seen weighing on overall activity. Uncertainties surrounding fiscal reform and a challenging external environment cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,322
GDP (USD bn)382381293283312
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.11.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.62.4
Investment (annual variation in %)6.09.92.8-2.91.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.31.52.04.1-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.1
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.4-3.0-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.138.142.943.844.9
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.97.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.6-12.0-10.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.2-4.6-13.5-9.1-4.6
Exports (USD billion)60.356.938.634.139.7
Imports (USD billion)57.161.552.143.244.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.1-5.6-32.2-11.616.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.87.8-15.4-16.92.3
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.838.242.540.0

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.900.0 %Jul 11
Exchange Rate3,199-0.17 %Jul 11
Stock Market13,005-0.66 %Jul 11

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