Colombia Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020Following an unprecedented GDP drop in Q2, available data suggests that recovering activity hit a roadblock in Q3, as repeated extensions of the nationwide quarantine until end-August pummeled domestic activity. After three consecutive months of moderation, the contraction in industrial output sharpened again in August amid reduced manufacturing of automotive parts and travel accessories. Moreover, in the same month, retail sales declined at a much faster pace than in July, which, coupled with a still-elevated unemployment rate in Q3, hints that household consumption remained downbeat in the quarter. That said, looking at Q4, the recovery seems to be gaining some steam again. Consumer confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month in October, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to a three-month high in the same month on the back of quickening output and a rebound in new orders.
Colombia Economic GrowthThe economy is seen contracting for the first time in over two decades this year due to the Covid-19 shock, before rebounding in 2021 on recovering household and capital spending as well as strengthening foreign demand. That said, uncertainty regarding the course of the pandemic and still-subdued prices for oil—the country’s main export—cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.6% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 3.6%.
Colombia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.08||0.0 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||3,287||-0.17 %||Jan 01|
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Colombia Economic News
February 15, 2021
According to preliminary data, GDP contracted 3.6% in annual terms in the last quarter of 2020, moderating notably from Q3’s 8.5% dive and beating market expectations of a sharper drop.
February 12, 2021
Industrial output increased 1.5% compared to the same month of the previous year in December 2020, contrasting November's 0.2% drop and marking the best result since February 2020.
February 8, 2021
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index deteriorated significantly in January coming in at minus 20.8, down from December’s minus 10.4 and putting an end to an eight-month streak of improving sentiment.
February 4, 2021
Merchandise exports dropped at a softer pace of 9.0% year-on-year in December 2020, following November’s 14.3% plunge and logging the weakest contraction since February 2020.
February 1, 2021
The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to 53.3 in January from December’s 51.8, marking the highest reading since July 2020.