Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

March 13, 2018

The economy lost traction for the fourth consecutive year in 2017, expanding at the weakest pace in eight years. Annual GDP growth lost momentum in the final quarter after picking up in the previous three quarters. Private consumption growth fell sharply from Q3 and was the primary factor behind the slower economic expansion in Q4. Higher inflation, along with sluggish growth in private credit, discouraged household spending. Prospects furthermore look fairly dim at the outset of 2018. While consumer confidence rose to the highest level in just over a year in January, it remained in pessimistic territory, and unemployment reached a two-year high in the month. In the legislative elections held on 11 March, voters turned to right-wing parties critical of the peace deal brokered with FARC rebels. Ex-President Álvaro Uribe’s conservative Democratic Party won the most seats in parliament. Meanwhile, FARC—the former guerilla movement turned political party—failed to garner support for its radical agenda and will only hold the 10 seats guaranteed under the 2016 peace agreement.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economic recovery should pick up pace this year as domestic demand improves. An upturn in private consumption growth is expected against an anticipated decline in inflation. Growth in fixed investment should also accelerate amid more favorable financing conditions. Diversifying the economic structure and boosting productivity in the lackluster non-oil sector will, however, be crucial to achieving sustainable growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

Population (million)46.647.147.748.248.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,0305,801
GDP (USD bn)369380378291283
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate10.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.442.4
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.518.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,1753,002
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,7493,052
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.6-11.5
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.836.031.4
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.642.8
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.746.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.042.5

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Colombia Facts

Bond Yield6.530.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate2,848-0.17 %Mar 15
Stock Market11,398-0.66 %Mar 15

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