Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

April 9, 2019

Available indicators point to a loss of pace in the first quarter. Retail sales growth decelerated in January, as soaring unemployment and downbeat consumer sentiment in January–February likely weighed on household consumption. Moreover, although industrial production rebounded in January, the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary terrain throughout Q1. In addition, exports fell again in January on sliding oil prices and a decline in coal production, although bounced back in February. On the other hand, fixed investment growth likely improved in January, reflected by a solid upturn in imports of capital and intermediate goods. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance unveiled the results of the independent Fiscal Rule Committee, which gave the government some extra room to alleviate rising pressures on the budget from the growing influx of Venezuelans.

Colombia Economic Growth

Growth is set to climb on an acceleration in exports, while domestic demand should remain solid. A rise in business confidence should help lift fixed investment growth, while private consumption should expand at a healthy pace. Risks to the outlook stem from uncertainties over the pace of fiscal reform and volatility in commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1067,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.390.0 %Apr 22
Exchange Rate3,156-0.17 %Apr 22
Stock Market12,982-0.66 %Apr 22

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