China: Inflation rises further in September

Consumer prices rose 0.7% from the previous month in September, matching August’s result. The increase was primarily driven by higher food prices, particularly for vegetables, which were affected by seasonal factors as the Mid-autumn Festival.

Inflation ticked up from 2.3% in August to 2.5% in September. The print was in line with market expectations and represented a seven-month high. In addition, annual average inflation stabilized at August’s 2.0% in September.

Producer price inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 3.6% in September from 4.1% in August and just in line with market analysts’ expectations. Annual average producer price inflation fell from August’s 4.7% to 4.4% in September.

China Inflation Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that consumer inflation will average 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2020, the panel sees consumer inflation at 2.3%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer inflation of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, panelists see producer inflation at 1.8%.