Bulgaria GDP Q4 2018

Bulgaria

Bulgaria: GDP growth holds steady in Q4 2018

February 14, 2019

A preliminary release by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 3.1% on an annual basis in the final quarter of 2018, matching the third quarter’s expansion. Both domestic and external demand contributed to growth in the fourth quarter.

A rudimentary breakdown showed that total consumption growth slowed to 5.3% in Q4 (Q3: +6.9% year-on-year), likely weighed by moderating wage growth and higher unemployment, on average, throughout the quarter. Fixed investment also lost traction in Q4, growing 4.0% in annual terms (Q3: +7.0% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services rebounded after contracting for two consecutive quarters (Q4: +0.8% yoy; Q3: -3.6% yoy), while growth in imports cooled to 2.5% in Q4 (Q3: +4.0% yoy).

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted basis, growth remained unchanged from the third quarter at 0.7%.

More comprehensive data will be released on 7 March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, panelists see the economy growing 2.9%.


Author:, Economist

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Bulgaria GDP Q4 2018

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Statistical Institute (NSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast


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