Belize Economic Outlook
December 4, 2018
GDP data revealed the economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter, although nonetheless slowed from the second quarter’s stellar expansion, which received a notable upward revision in the Q3 release. Surging tourism underpinned strong growth in the services sector, with the hotels and restaurants subsector growing at the second-fastest pace since Q1 2003. Primary sector growth decelerated but still posted a solid performance thanks to a sharp rebound in marine exports. On the downside, the secondary sector contracted on broad-based declines in manufacturing, electricity and water generation, and construction activity.Belize Economic Growth
The economy should chug along at a steady pace in 2019. Tourism will continue to be a key pillar of growth, while a pick-up in agricultural production and sustained FDI inflows will also buttress the expansion. However, external imbalances—namely a large current account deficit combined with low international reserves—make Belize particularly susceptible to external shocks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2020.Belize Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,607 | 4,773 | 4,859 | 4,841 | 4,829 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 0.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment Rate | 14.2 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 9.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -2.4 | -7.4 | -3.8 | -4.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 79.1 | 77.1 | 80.0 | 86.6 | 94.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.6 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.5 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Benchmark Interest Rate (%) | 11.12 | 10.66 | 10.03 | 9.66 | 9.34 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -4.5 | -7.5 | -9.7 | -8.3 | -7.0 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -2.2 | -3.1 | -8.7 | -17.7 | 3.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | -9.0 | -3.3 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 77.5 | 75.5 | 74.8 | 73.9 | - |
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Belize Facts
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