Belize Economic Outlook
January 18, 2022
GDP growth remained strong in Q3, albeit easing compared to Q2’s stellar performance. The slowdown was due to a less favorable base effect and increasing new Covid-19 cases, which led to the imposition of a curfew in the period. Looking at sectors, agricultural output had the worst performance, slowing down significantly. Meanwhile, the labor market showed some positive signs, as the latest survey revealed that the unemployment rate fell to single digits in September. Turning to Q4, tourism remained solid in October–November, which should have supported the still-fragile services sector. Meanwhile, both exports and imports expanded robustly in the same period, signaling resuming activity at home and strong demand abroad. That said, Covid-19 continued to hamper output in the quarter and into the new year, with some restrictions remaining in place until at least mid-January.Belize Economic Growth
Economic activity should lose steam in 2022, after a mild recovery in 2021. However, the key tourism sector should continue its path toward pre-pandemic levels, thus bolstering activity. A dire external debt position and fragile government finances pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 5.7% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.0%.Belize Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,712 | 4,720 | 4,755 | 4,728 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | -2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate | 10.2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 10.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -3.4 | -2.8 | -0.7 | -1.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 82.7 | 88.9 | 96.4 | 96.6 | 99.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | -0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Benchmark Interest Rate (%) | 10.32 | 9.84 | 9.46 | 9.12 | 9.08 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.0 | -8.5 | -7.8 | -8.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | -17.8 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 2.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 2.3 | -9.0 | -3.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 75.8 | 74.5 | 74.5 | 73.7 | - |
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