Belize Economic Outlook
December 4, 2018GDP data revealed the economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter, although nonetheless slowed from the second quarter’s stellar expansion, which received a notable upward revision in the Q3 release. Surging tourism underpinned strong growth in the services sector, with the hotels and restaurants subsector growing at the second-fastest pace since Q1 2003. Primary sector growth decelerated but still posted a solid performance thanks to a sharp rebound in marine exports. On the downside, the secondary sector contracted on broad-based declines in manufacturing, electricity and water generation, and construction activity.
Belize Economic GrowthThe economy should chug along at a steady pace in 2019. Tourism will continue to be a key pillar of growth, while a pick-up in agricultural production and sustained FDI inflows will also buttress the expansion. However, external imbalances—namely a large current account deficit combined with low international reserves—make Belize particularly susceptible to external shocks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2020.
Belize Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,607||4,773||4,859||4,841||4,829|
|GDP (USD bn)||1.6||1.7||1.8||1.8||1.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||0.7||4.0||3.8||-0.5||1.2|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.6||-2.4||-7.4||-3.8||-4.1|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||79.1||77.1||80.0||86.6||94.9|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.6||-0.2||-0.6||1.1||1.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||0.5||1.2||-0.9||0.7||1.1|
|Benchmark Interest Rate (%)||11.12||10.66||10.03||9.66||9.34|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.5||-7.5||-9.7||-8.3||-7.0|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.1||-0.1||-0.2||-0.2||-0.1|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.3||-0.3||-0.4||-0.4||-0.4|
|Exports (USD billion)||0.6||0.6||0.5||0.4||0.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||0.9||0.9||1.0||0.9||0.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-2.2||-3.1||-8.7||-17.7||3.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||8.6||5.6||2.4||-9.0||-3.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||0.4||0.5||0.4||0.4||0.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||77.5||75.5||74.8||73.9||-|
5 years of Belize economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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