Argentina Economic Activity October 2018


Argentina: Contraction in economic activity softens in October

December 28, 2018

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 4.0% in annual terms in October, a softer drop than the revised 6.1% fall recorded in September (previously reported: -5.8% year-on-year). The reading marked the seventh consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms.

October’s contraction again came mainly on the back of significant falls in the manufacturing; wholesale and retail sale; transport; and communication sectors. However, the performances of the aforementioned sectors were less negative than seen in the previous month. Moreover, growth in the agricultural sector accelerated somewhat, while the pace of expansion in the fishing sector surged compared to September.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rebounded 0.9% in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, from September’s revised 2.1% drop (previously reported: -1.9% month-on-month). Finally, the annual average variation in economic activity was equal to a 0.7% contraction in October, contrasting a 0.1% increase in September.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.5% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity Chart

Argentina Economic Activity October 2018

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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