Angola Commodities October 2022

Angola: Cabinda prices decline in September

The average price for Cabinda oil fell to USD 92.5 per barrel (pb) in September, down from July’s USD 106.6 pb. This marked a 13.2% decrease month on month. However, prices were still up 24.2% year on year.

Oil prices dropped during the previous month amid weaker economic activity worldwide and increasing fears regarding the global economic outlook. Widespread interest rate hikes and decades-high inflation took a toll on Western economies. Meanwhile, momentum in key customer China remained downbeat as stringent Covid-19 restrictions persisted.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output was stable at August’s 1.18 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September. Production among other OPEC+ members diverged. Output rose in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In contrast, it decreased in Iran, Iraq and Venezuela.

Global oil prices should pick up during the remainder of this year and 2023 due to OPEC+ production cuts from November onwards. That said, fears of a global recession will exert downward pressure. Key factors to watch include the output levels of other oil producers, the evolution of OPEC+ quotas and new sanctions on Russia. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production in 2023 close to 2022 levels, which leaves output below the historical average and would prevent the country from fully reaping the rewards of elevated oil prices.

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