Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Q4 2018 prices broadly stable on doubts about current rally

Prices for Brent and WTI crude oil rallied in recent weeks on the back of resilient global growth, which is boosting demand, and signs that the oil cut deal could be extended well into 2018. That said, the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast for the energy market was upgraded only slightly this month as fundamentals for a sustained recovery in prices remain weak. Any sharp rise in oil prices should be offset by higher demand from shale producers, particularly in the United States. Moreover, most participants in the oil cut accord are still facing considerable economic imbalances and could therefore be tempted to deviate from the deal.

In Q4 2018, the FocusEconomics energy price index is seen averaging 96.3, which is slightly above last month’s 96.2 and would represent a 3.3% increase from the expected 93.2 in Q4 2017. The revision reflects higher forecasts for three commodities, including WTI crude oil. However, the price projections for uranium were downgraded, while five commodities saw unchanged forecasts. 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.73  4.34  2.61  2.49  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  63.03  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.28  116.6  90  120.59  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  
Ethanol2.37  2.51  2.39  1.6  1.59  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Ethanol prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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