Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices continue rising in December amid extended production cuts

Energy prices rose 2.7% month-on-month in December, slowing slightly from November’s 3.0% increase and marking the third increase in the last four months.

A sustained increase in global oil prices spearheaded the upturn in December’s energy prices. Oil prices were supported by an extension of the OPEC+ oil cut deal in early December and optimism over the demand outlook for crude following the announcement of an impending “phase one” trade deal between China and the U.S. on 13 December. Relatively healthy end-of-year growth dynamics in China and the U.S., coupled with falling oil inventories in the United States, further stoked oil prices. Meanwhile, natural gas prices slumped amid warmer-than-normal weather in the U.S., while gasoline prices dived on rising inventories and sluggish demand.

 

Our panelists see energy prices ticking down 0.3% in Q4 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (previous edition: -0.2% yoy). That said, the outlook remains volatile: Whereas OPEC+ production cuts and slowing output growth in North America should keep energy sector supply in check, still-frail global growth clouds the outlook. On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a major risk to the outlook. Further ahead, however, price growth is seen firming up: Our panelists project prices to jump 5.4% in annual terms in Q4 2021.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

Note:

  • Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
  • Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
  • Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
  • Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • All prices are average of period (aop).

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