Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices log third decline in four months in August

Energy prices declined 5.9% month-on-month in August, contrasting July’s 2.0% rise and representing the third decline in four months.

Soft demand from China continued to put a lid on coking and thermal coal prices, with both sinking around 10% in the month. Moreover, prices for oil and oil-related products declined in August on concerns about reduced demand for the black gold as a result of subdued global growth prospects and spillovers from rising trade protectionism. Announced trade talks between China and the United States, more supportive fiscal and monetary policies among most of the world’s key economies and the successful implementation of the OPEC+ oil cut deal should support oil prices going forward. However, prospects remain fragile and highly dependent on political developments.

Our panelists see energy prices dropping 6.7% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previously projected: -1.6% year-on-year). Along with lower prices for oil and oil-related products, the sharp decline will be led by a sizeable fall in gas natural prices, partially reflecting a large base effect from Q4 2018, as well as significant declines in prices for coking and thermal coal on the back of the continuous shift to renewables. Our panelists see the downturn in prices sharpening next year and estimate energy prices will slump 3.4% annually in Q4 2020.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Brent Crude Oil108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  54.26  
WTI Crude Oil97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  50.84  
Gasoline2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  1.72  
Natural Gas3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  3.02  
Thermal Coal85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  88.19  
Coking Coal 147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  188.92  
Uranium38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  22.06  
Gasoil918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  482.81  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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