Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices fall back slightly in April

Energy prices fell 5.4% over the past month in April, after soaring 23.8% in March. The result marked the first decrease in prices thus far in 2022.

After increasing by 23.0% quarter on quarter in Q1, energy prices dropped in April. Market volatility also eased as panic buying subsided. Looking at the oil market, prices were down as the IEA announced a second oil reserve release on April 1, taking the total reserve release to an unprecedented 240 million barrels over the next six months. Moreover, OPEC+ continued to increase its output quotas in the month. Stronger demand headwinds also pushed down prices: harsh restrictions in response to a Covid-19 outbreak in China and flagging economic momentum in OECD countries led the IEA to downgrade its forecast for global oil consumption in Q2. A stronger dollar and a more hawkish Fed also dimmed demand prospects. This said, oil prices remained at levels not seen in nearly a decade. The threat of an EU ban on oil loomed over the market in the month, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to ramp up production more quickly. In the coal market, the story was similar: The supply outlook appeared to brighten amid moderating weather in Australia, while demand appeared to be dampened by weaker appetite in China. The market for U.S. natural gas, however, was far more bullish as prices continued to soar. Gas market bulls were emboldened by a continued fall in inventories and weak production. Meanwhile, LNG export demand remained at record levels and the U.S. saw below-average temperatures in the month, boosting demand prospects.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  
Brent Crude Oil52.42  43.83  54.26  71.01  64.32  
WTI Crude Oil48.68  43.28  50.84  64.94  56.97  
Gasoline1.94  1.44  1.72  2.04  1.96  
Natural Gas2.63  2.55  3.02  3.07  2.53  
Thermal Coal58.88  65.69  88.19  107.03  78  
Coking Coal 88.38  142.7  188.92  207.39  179.47  
Uranium36.81  26.45  22.06  24.55  25.9  
Gasoil488.16  390.61  482.81  625.62  579.12  

Note:

  • Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
  • Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
  • Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
  • Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • All prices are average of period (aop).

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