Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices continue to slide  in August

Energy prices fell 4.9% over the past month in August (July: 11.5% mom), bringing them to their lowest level since the war in Ukraine began. That said, they were still up 50.1% year on year during the month.
 

As in July, economic data continued to disappoint in August, denting investors’ perceptions of demand prospects ahead. The U.S. composite PMI fell to the lowest level since May 2020—when the country was mired in the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic—while the Euro area and Japan composite PMIs languished in contractionary territory in August. The flagging economic momentum led to demand destruction for oil and its derivatives, with U.S. gasoline consumption down year on year throughout August. This depressed gasoline, gasoil and crude prices . Turning to other energy commodities, coking coal prices were weighed on by a contraction in the Chinese steel industry in August. Meanwhile, thermal coal prices were hit by intensifying fears of a global economic slowdown and a shift by coal producers to thermal and away from coking, enticed by the unprecedented  price premium currently enjoyed by thermal coal. The only energy commodities to record increases in prices were natural gas and uranium. Natural gas prices soared, fanned by rising demand from Europe amid further disruption to Russian supply. Uranium prices rose slightly, boosted by Japan’s announcement that it would restart more idled plants and explore plans to develop new ones.

 

Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  
Brent Crude Oil52.42  43.83  54.26  71.01  64.32  
WTI Crude Oil48.68  43.28  50.84  64.94  56.97  
Gasoline1.94  1.44  1.72  2.04  1.96  
Natural Gas2.63  2.55  3.02  3.07  2.53  
Thermal Coal58.88  65.69  88.19  107.03  78  
Coking Coal 88.38  142.7  188.92  207.39  179.47  
Uranium36.81  26.45  22.06  24.55  25.9  
Gasoil488.16  390.61  482.81  625.62  579.12  

Note:

  • Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
  • Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
  • Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
  • Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
  • Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
  • All prices are average of period (aop).

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