Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices tumble in June as softer global economic conditions threaten to curb oil demand 

Energy prices slumped 10.3% on a monthly basis in June, on the heels of a softer 3.0% dip in May. June’s result marked the steepest decline since December 2018 and reflected lower month-on-month prices in all eight energy commodities included in the FocusEconomics survey.

Nose-diving prices for oil and oil derivatives led the overall decline in energy prices. Rising fears of a global economic slowdown and the ongoing trade spat between the world’s two largest economies hurt oil demand expectations. In addition, high inventories and a well-supplied market kept firm downward pressure on natural gas prices in June, while prices for thermal coal took a significant hit from slowing Chinese industrial activities.

Our panelists see energy prices dropping 1.9% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previously reported: -0.3% year-on-year). The decline will be led by significantly lower prices for natural gas amid elevated output and due to a large base effect from last year. Furthermore, thermal and coking coal prices are seen sliding further as renewables and cleaner energy sources are increasingly favored. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI oil prices should remain broadly stable. Our panelists see the downward trend sustained next year and expect energy prices to drop 2.2% annually in Q4 2020.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Brent Crude Oil108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  54.26  
WTI Crude Oil97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  50.84  
Gasoline2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  1.72  
Natural Gas3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  3.02  
Thermal Coal85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  88.19  
Coking Coal 147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  188.92  
Uranium38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  22.06  
Gasoil918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  482.81  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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