Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Energy prices expand for second consecutive month in October

Energy prices continued to rise in October mainly due to higher oil prices and surging coking coal and natural gas prices. Energy prices rose 3.1% month-on-month in October, following September’s 5.5% increase.

Reports signaling that the United States will enter winter with low storage levels of natural gas boosted prices for the commodity in October. Moreover, tight supply in China prompted coking coal prices to surge. While oil prices averaged higher in October than in the previous month, concerns over the state of the global economy and increased supply by key oil producers took outweighed the reduced output in Iran due to punitive U.S. sanctions. Against this backdrop, oil prices started to fall markedly in the second week of October. This trend was reinforced early in November when the U.S. allowed eight countries, including China, India, Turkey, to continue buying Iranian oil for an unspecified period of time. Moreover, uranium prices continued to climb due to better demand prospects and planned production cuts.

Despite the decline in oil prices observed in recent weeks, the commodity, along with its derivatives, will still be largely responsible for the sharp 25.2% year-on-year increase in energy prices expected for Q4 2018 (previous edition: +24.5% yoy). That said, aforementioned doubts about oil prices and a broader preference for cleaner energy will drag on energy prices next year. Our panel of analysts expect energy prices to drop 4.4% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  62.96  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.71  114.58  90.93  129.68  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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