Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

A tightening global oil market continues to buttress energy prices in February

Energy prices expanded at the fastest pace in over one year in February, rising 7.0% month-on-month following January’s 2.3% increase.

The narrative regarding the evolution of energy prices remained unchanged from the previous month. OPEC countries are quickly implementing the voluntary oil output cuts agreed upon in December, effectively tightening global oil markets and, in turn, pushing up prices for oil and its derivatives. That being said, strong oil production in the United States, still-resilient output in Russia and subdued global growth prospects are limiting any sharp upswing in oil prices. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are still declining following the massive rally observed in Q4, which has been reinforced by relatively mild weather in January and February.

Our panelists see energy prices falling 0.7% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previous edition: -0.5% year-on-year). The outlook for energy prices remain subdued on the back of doubts over the sustainability of the current upward trend in oil prices; a broader preference for cleaner energy, which will dampen demand for coal; and a large base effect in natural gas prices from the previous year. Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to decline again in annual terms in Q4 2020, falling 6.0% due to the ongoing downward trend in coal prices, as well as slightly lower prices for oil and its derivatives

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal96.92  85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  
Coking Coal 183.43  147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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