Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Equity rout sends energy prices down

The sell-off in U.S. equity markets in early February quickly spread to energy markets, sending prices for most commodities down. Fears that global oil markets remain oversupplied despite lower production by OPEC members and Russia also weighed on prices. Energy prices fell 4.2% month-on-month in February (January: +6.9% month-on-month), marking the first decline in eight months.

The decline in energy prices was broad-based, as six of the eight commodities tracked saw declines in prices in February. Prices for oil and oil derivatives suffered the most from increased volatility in global financial markets. That said, oil prices started to recover in the aftermath of the correction. Along with spillovers from the equity rout, natural gas prices were dragged down in February by a base effect from January, when prices spiked due to harsh winter conditions in most of the Western Hemisphere. On the flip side, coking coal prices were up in February on supply disruptions in Queensland, Australia, while rising costs in China and limited output pushed up thermal coal prices.

Energy prices are expected to resume their upward trend on the back of solid global economic growth and restricted demand. However, price gains will be limited as surging oil production in the United States is preventing any abrupt swing in prices. Moreover, stricter environmental regulation in China and a broader preference for cleaner energy globally will dampen demand for coal. Analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect energy commodities prices to rise 3.0% year-on-year in Q4 2018 before slowing to a 1.1% increase in Q4 2019.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.73  4.34  2.61  2.49  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  63.03  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.28  116.6  90  120.59  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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