Latin America Economic Outlook
The economy is set to keep lagging global growth this year, hampered by weak productivity, political volatility and limited exposure to fast-expanding industries. Paraguay and Venezuela are the only economies seen growing above 3%, while most others are forecast to expand by 1.0–3.0%. Bolivia will be a laggard, contracting amid fiscal austerity and falling gas output.
Latin America Inflation
So far this year, inflation has been in high triple digits in Venezuela due to currency weakness, double digits in Argentina and Bolivia and between 1.0% and 6.0% in other countries. This three-speed pattern will persist in 2026 as a whole. Persistent conflict in the Middle East is the key upside risk to the outlook.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.6 | 60.9 | 67.8 | 63.3 | 64.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 42.6 | 37.7 | 34.9 | 34.4 | 36.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,273 | 1,473 | 1,454 | 1,506 | 1,606 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,308 | 9,374 | 10,474 | 10,621 | 11,048 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,224 | 1,485 | 1,411 | 1,450 | 1,538 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 49 | -11 | 42 | 56 | 69 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 16.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.5 | -5.3 | -5.3 | -4.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.5 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 7.3 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 913 | 854 | 888 | 902 | 1,011 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 10.2 | 15.6 | 18.4 | 24.8 | 7.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 6.29 | 11.51 | 10.70 | 9.86 | 9.78 |