Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin America’s economy will likely grow at the weakest pace among all world regions this year on ongoing political and policy uncertainty, high violent crime rates and a lack of economic competitiveness versus other emerging markets. That said, interest rate cuts, lower inflation in most of the region and nearshoring investment in some countries will provide support.
Latin America Inflation
In February, inflation fell in Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, rose in Bolivia, Chile and Peru and was stable in Ecuador. Regional inflation is forecast to rise on average this year from 2023. However, this will mainly be due to a more-than-doubling of inflation in Argentina; most other countries will see lower average inflation in 2024 versus 2023.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.55 | 18.91 | - |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 323 | 345 | 404 | 442 | 425 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -2.5 | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,037 | 948 | 1,213 | 1,411 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,020 | 856 | 1,171 | 1,425 | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 832 | 871 | 908 | 850 | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 38.1 | 46.2 | 41.0 | 36.2 | - |
GDP per capita (USD) | 8,653 | 7,247 | 8,323 | 9,379 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -7.7 | 8.3 | 5.6 | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -0.4 | -11.4 | 16.0 | 5.3 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.9 | 7.7 | 1.9 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.4 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.1 | 68.9 | 62.8 | 61.1 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 17.7 |