Thailand Inflation

Inflation returns in April

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 2.9% on a year-on-year basis in April, following a 0.1% fall in the previous month. April's reading was the strongest since February 2023 and exceeded market expectations. After 12 consecutive months of deflation, prices returned to growth and came in within the 1.0–3.0% target range of the Bank of Thailand. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were higher price pressures for food and beverages (+1.0% in annual terms vs +0.3% in March), housing and utilities (+0.1% vs -0.5% in March) and transportation and communication (+11.4% vs 0.0% in March). In contrast, price pressures reduced for recreation and education in April (+0.5% vs +0.6% in March). Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 0.8% in annual terms in April, following a 0.6% increase in the prior month. Lastly, consumer prices increased 2.75% in April in month-on-month terms, following a 0.60% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Nomura’s Euben Paracuelles and Yiru Chen said: “Taking into account [April’s] outturn and our latest Brent crude oil assumption, we raise our 2026 headline inflation forecast to 1.50% from 0.6%. This pencils in sticky inflation readings over the next couple of months before gradually easing by Q4. We believe that, with the approval of a large emergency borrowing decree and the loan for the Oil Fund, the government will likely look to limit the pass-through from crude oil prices to retail fuel prices and electricity rates. […] Overall, we see the pickup in headline inflation as temporary and relatively modest, with limited spillover effects to the core basket.”

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