GDP in Indonesia
Indonesia - GDP
Growth softens in Q4 on budget cuts
Indonesia’s growth eased in the fourth quarter of 2016, expanding at the slowest pace since Q1. GDP expanded 4.9% over the same period of the previous year, down slightly from Q3’s 5.0% expansion. The result came in 0.2 percentage points below market expectations. Despite lackluster growth, both private consumption and fixed investment data show an economy largely on a steady footing.
The moderate slowdown came as a result of another significant decrease in government consumption, following state budget cuts in response to a legally-binding deficit ceiling. Government spending contracted 4.0%, a sharper decline than Q3’s 3.0% contraction and a multi-year low. The dismal reading likely also reflects base effects from increased government spending ahead of Q4 2015’s regional elections. Private consumption growth, meanwhile, was stable at 5.0% and unchanged from the previous quarter. Offsetting Q4’s government spending cuts was an unexpected boost from fixed investment, which increased from 4.2% in the previous quarter to 4.8%.
The external sector contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth as exports grew by a modest 4.2%, rebounding from a sharp 5.6% contraction in the previous quarter. The swing was likely attributable to stronger commodity prices which benefited the heavily-weighted commodity export sector. Import growth rebounded more modestly, from a 3.7% contraction in the previous quarter to a 2.8% expansion.
In 2016, GDP growth climbed slightly to 5.0% from 4.9% in 2015, reflecting solid domestic demand despite constrained government spending. Looking ahead, the economy is on track to grow at a faster pace than last year, bolstered by a favorable electronics export cycle and improving terms of trade. In 2017, domestic demand is also expected to get a boost from higher public infrastructure spending, which will likely crowd-in private sector investment.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to boost growth this year and see GDP expanding 5.2% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel sees economic growth at 5.4%.
Indonesia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.2||6.0||5.6||5.0||4.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Indonesia GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Indonesia.
|Bond Yield||7.09||-0.16 %||Mar 27|
|Exchange Rate||13,311||0.0 %||Mar 28|
|Stock Market||5,541||-0.47 %||Mar 27|
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March 16, 2017
Indonesian tetail sales in January expanded 6.3% over the same month last year, according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (RSS).
March 16, 2017
At its 15 and 16 March monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia decided to hold the BI seven-day Reverse Repo rate at 4.75%.
March 15, 2017
Indonesia’s trade surplus widened in February as export growth remained robust.
March 1, 2017
In February, consumer prices rose 0.23% compared to the previous month, which was below January’s 0.97% increase.
March 1, 2017
After a short-lived improvement in January, Indonesia’s manufacturing industry returned to contractionary territory in February.