Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

First-quarter GDP growth was revised upwards to 3.7% from a preliminary reading of 3.4%. Manufacturing growth was stronger than previously estimated, while robust private consumption was supported by the reopening of the economy. Moving to the second quarter, the economy seems to be performing solidly. Industrial production expanded at a robust pace in April, supported by the transport engineering sector. Moreover, in April and May the manufacturing and electronics PMIs remained in expansionary territory. On the downside, export growth cooled in April, weighed down by Covid-19 lockdowns in China, although it regained traction in May. Meanwhile, the IMF concluded its Article IV Mission in late May, praising the government’s tightening monetary policy stance and prudent normalization of fiscal policy following its timely policy response to the pandemic.

Singapore Economic Growth

GDP should expand at a healthy pace this year, as private consumption, fixed investment and manufacturing activity benefit from the removal of Covid-19 restrictions. That said, a weaker external environment will limit the pace of expansion. The main downside risks stem from supply chain disruptions due to China’s zero-covid strategy and high energy prices. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month, and to grow 2.9% in 2023.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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