Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

The economy expanded more than previously expected in Q3, according to revised estimates, driven by continued strong growth in a manufacturing sector benefiting from healthy global demand for electronics. Turning to Q4, a less favorable base effect will no doubt act as a damper to activity, although available data points to solid underlying dynamics. Despite PMI readings for both the manufacturing and electronics sectors averaging marginally lower in October–November than in Q3, they both remained within expansionary territory in the period, while non-oil exports grew at the fastest rate in four years in October. Moreover, authorities have continued to ease restrictions as daily Covid-19 cases have reduced since hitting record highs in late October, with a region-leading vaccination campaign resulting in over 90% of the population vaccinated and around 25% having received booster shots.

Singapore Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to slow in 2022 as the base effect fades, following this year’s projected decade-high rate. Domestically, consumer and capital spending growth will ease from this year´s estimated levels, while a normalization in global trade should see export growth moderate. As such, growth should be below that of most other major economies in the region. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.1% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and to grow 3.3% in 2023.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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