Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Annual economic activity growth gained traction in January–April compared to the 2021 average. This acceleration was spearheaded by strong growth in the output of the Kumtor gold mine. Alongside robust manufacturing activity, this more than offset the negative effect of plunging electricity production and a diminishing water supply. Moreover, both the retail and wholesale trade increased at a healthy rate in January-April. However, merchandise exports contracted during the same period. The economy faces increasing headwinds for the reminder of Q2. In particular, the fallout from the war in Ukraine—which is likely to include mounting inflationary pressure, a depreciating som and a plunge in remittances inflows from Russia (which currently account for nearly a third of GDP)—bodes ill for both domestic and external demand.
Kyrgyzstan Economic GrowthOur panelists significantly reduced their GDP forecasts this month and now expect the economy to contract in 2022. The fallout from the war in Ukraine will hammer remittances inflows and drive up inflation, undermining private consumption. The risks to the outlook are firmly on the downside—most notably tension with neighboring Tajikistan and diminishing water reserves. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to contract 0.6% in 2022, which is down 2.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel expects GDP to grow 3.6%.
Kyrgyzstan Economy Data
5 years of Kyrgyzstan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||69.66||0.0 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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