Jordan Economic Outlook
September 7, 2021The recovery seemingly continued in Q2: Industrial production growth jumped in April–May compared to the prior quarter, albeit helped by a favorable base effect. Additionally, phase one of the economic reopening plan, which was rolled out on 1 June, should have supported momentum at the tail end of Q2 and into the third quarter, with industrial facilities operating at full capacity from 1 July. Moreover, with daily infections remaining in check and the vaccination drive continuing to advance, authorities implemented phase three on 1 September. Most business are allowed to open at full capacity, while theaters, festivals and exhibits can resume operations at limited capacity. This bodes well for activity in the final month of Q3. Meanwhile, the IMF recently concluded its second review under the extended fund facility, making around USD 206 million immediately available to the country.
Jordan Economic GrowthGDP is seen returning to growth this year, helped by recovering domestic demand and higher tourist arrivals as travel restrictions are eased globally. That said, the expansion will be supported by a base effect. Moreover, high public debt stocks, a large fiscal deficit and regional tensions all cloud the outlook. Our panelists foresee GDP expanding 2.1% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.8% in 2022.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,140||4,145||4,196||4,264||4,350|
|GDP (USD bn)||37.9||39.2||40.7||42.2||43.8|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||2.1||2.1||1.9||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||0.9||-2.1||-0.7||-6.1||-5.5|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.4||-3.2||-2.6||-2.4||-3.4|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||92.4||93.8||94.3||94.4||96.6|
|Money (annual variation in %)||8.1||4.0||0.2||1.2||4.8|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||-0.9||-0.8||3.3||4.5||0.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||3.75||3.75||5.00||5.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-9.2||-9.8||-10.8||-7.0||-2.8|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-3.9||-4.4||-3.0||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-12.6||-11.8||-13.0||-12.6||-11.0|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||7.5||7.5||7.8||8.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||20.5||19.3||20.5||20.3||19.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-6.6||-3.6||-0.5||3.2||7.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-10.7||-5.6||6.1||-1.0||-4.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.2||14.0||13.5||12.7||13.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||67.9||69.5||74.1||75.9||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Nov 30|
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