Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

September 14, 2021

The economy is in dire straits. Compounding the uncertainty arising from President Moïse’s assassination on 7 July came an earthquake on 14 August, causing thousands of deaths and damage to tens of thousands of buildings. A subsequent storm and widespread gang violence have hindered rescue and recovery efforts. In politics, the international community has thrown its weight behind PM Ariel Henry, likely signaling a continuation of pre-existing economic policies. On 8 September, the government announced a draft plan to reform the constitution in order to strengthen presidential powers. While its backers argue this could reduce legislative gridlock, it remains to be seen whether it will bring about meaningful political and economic change, with the near-term outlook remaining grim.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy is expected to only just eke out growth in 2021, following last year’s decline, as ongoing political and social turmoil weigh on activity. Downside risks include further delays to the vaccine rollout, a continued worsening of the viral outbreak, vulnerability to natural disasters and political disputes among the country’s leaders amid the writing of a new constitution. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 0.7% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 2.4% in 2022.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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