Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

After the economy seemingly contracted in FY 2021 (1 October 2020–30 September 2021) amid sociopolitical turmoil, conditions remained dire at the beginning of FY 2022 (1 October 2021–30 September 2022). The economy grew marginally in Q1 FY 2022 due to a low base effect. The delicate security situation led to sharp supply disruptions and forced firms to operate in a limited fashion. This likely hurt private consumption and investment, as shown by deeper contractions in consumer and business loans in Q1 FY 2022 compared to Q4 FY 2021. Meanwhile, in recent months, gang violence has continued to intensify, with civilian deaths and kidnappings on the rise. Moreover, food prices have skyrocketed since late February due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine, exacerbating food insecurity. On a positive note, increasing remittances should provide some support to private spending.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy is projected to bounce back to growth in FY 2022, largely due to a favorable base effect after three consecutive years of contraction. That said, ongoing violence and political unrest continue to weigh on stability and activity. Moreover, fuel price swings, the pandemic and natural disasters pose further downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 1.3% in FY 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 1.7% in FY 2023.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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