Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

According to the national statistical authority, the economy contracted for the third year running in FY 2021, which ended in September. A dramatic fall in investment was behind the decline, likely caused by significant political uncertainty and natural disasters. Rising imports also contributed to weaker growth, while private and public consumption increased. Turning to FY 2022, prospects went from bad to worse early in the period: Gangs gained control of large swathes of the country, with port and road blockades causing severe fuel and water shortages and a resulting spiral in inflation through November. While an easing of blockades since November will be offering some respite, an apparent assassination attempt against the prime minister in January indicates that violence remains widespread, with greater external support and civil society engagement likely necessary for stabilization.

Haiti Economic Growth

GDP should grow this year, but this will be partly due to a favorable base effect after three consecutive years of contraction. Ongoing social and political turmoil are likely to keep weighing on activity, while possible elections and a constitutional referendum, further Covid-19 waves and natural disasters pose significant risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 1.5% in FY 2022, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 1.7% in FY 2023.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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