Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

August 29, 2017

The German economy’s dynamism remained on full display during Q2, and all signs indicate it will be sustained in H2. Although GDP growth moderated somewhat over the previous quarter in Q2, it remains vigorous, with domestic demand doing most of the heavy lifting. The positive momentum has seemingly carried over to Q3: Confidence indicators continue to hover at all-time or multi-year highs. The upbeat narrative bodes well for Angela Merkel’s reelection odds, with only a few weeks to go until federal elections are held on 24 September. Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union party is polling close to its 2013 election result, when it just missed out on an absolute majority. With little resistance on her way to an almost guaranteed fourth term, the real political battle will likely be fought after the election during coalition negotiations, as six parties are expected to sit in Germany’s lower house, up from four at present.

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Germany Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.464.34 %Sep 18
Exchange Rate1.20-0.08 %Sep 18
Stock Market12,5590.32 %Sep 18

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Germany Economic Growth

August 29, 2017

With little political uncertainty ahead, economic growth is expected to be broad-based. A tighter labor market is expected to push up wages, which should keep household consumption growing at a healthy pace. The external sector should also continue providing solid support to growth, thanks to the global economic upswing currently underway. Our panel expects GDP to grow 1.9% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel expects GDP growth of 1.8%.

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