Germany Economic Outlook
September 27, 2016The German economy slowed to a 0.4% quarterly expansion in Q2, restrained by shrinking fixed investment and construction. Conversely, public and private consumption continued to grow, albeit less than in Q1, and strong net exports were a bright spot. In Q3, Europe’s largest economy likely grew at a broadly stable pace. Unemployment held steady at a record-low level in August and consumer sentiment was upbeat in September, pointing to household spending as a key growth engine. While July’s declines in exports and industrial production and September’s drop in the PMI are signs for caution, September’s jump in business confidence was welcome news. In September, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) suffered important setbacks in two regional elections, losing voters to the populist and right-wing Alternative for Germany party (AfD) over voters’ discontent with Merkel’s migration policy. This development highlights a fragmentation of Germany’s political landscape and increases pressure on Merkel, who will likely announce in December if she will run for a fourth term in next year’s elections.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.05||-29.65 %||Oct 24|
|Exchange Rate||1.09||0.12 %||Oct 24|
|Stock Market||10,761||0.47 %||Oct 24|
Germany Economic Growth
September 27, 2016Growth dynamics in the domestic economy remain intact and will sustain GDP this year. Private consumption is benefiting from low interest rates, muted inflation and a strong labor market. Rising state incomes due to record tax revenues and low interest rates allow the government to boost spending while running a fiscal surplus. However, the external sector is expected to perform poorly in a context of subdued global demand and strong imports. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 1.7% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists forecast a 1.3% expansion.
Germany Economic News
October 24, 2016
The Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 52.8 in September to 55.1 in October.
October 10, 2016
The seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus increased from EUR 19.4 billion in July to EUR 22.2 billion in August, driven up by recovering exports.
October 7, 2016
In August, industrial production rose 2.5% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, in contrast to July’s large 1.6% drop, which had been the lowest reading in nearly two years.
September 29, 2016
Consumer prices in September rose 0.1% in a month-on-month comparison, according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 29 September.
September 28, 2016
Heading into October, the mood among German consumers weakened slightly but still stayed at a high level.