Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

June 27, 2017

Germany’s healthy economic momentum shows no signs of abating after the strong showing in Q1. Leading indicators reached multi-year highs over the course of Q2 and businesses in particular are especially confident. While the PMI index moderated slightly in June, the IFO Institute’s business confidence indicator reached a new all-time high. Both illustrate the strong support improved global economic conditions have offered German businesses. While the external sector continues to fulfill its role as Germany’s traditional engine of growth, domestic demand is also expected to have strengthened in Q2. Sky-high business confidence points to strong investment growth, even if it is expected to moderate somewhat from Q1’s exceptionally-high reading. Private consumption in particular continues to benefit from an ever-tightening labor market and record-high consumer confidence. On the political front, the conservative CDU, the Greens and the liberal FDP have agreed to form what is called a “Jamaica coalition” in Schleswig-Holstein, which could have a strong signaling effect ahead of September’s national elections.

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Germany Facts

Bond Yield0.50-3.87 %Jul 18
Exchange Rate1.160.96 %Jul 18
Stock Market12,430-1.25 %Jul 18

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Germany Economic Growth

June 27, 2017

GDP growth should remain robust this year, thanks to a strong external sector and resilient fixed investment. However, higher inflation will weigh on household consumption. Our panel expects GDP to grow 1.8% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel expects GDP growth of 1.7%.

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