Germany Economic Outlook
December 20, 2016The abrupt slowdown in the German economy in Q3 was confirmed by more complete data released by the Statistics Institute in November. Continued strong private consumption growth, which benefitted from record pension increases, healthy wage growth and low inflation, was not enough to overcome the negative contribution to growth from net trade. Exports contracted in Q3, brought down by increased uncertainty in the international trading environment. Early data for Q4 paint a mixed picture with consumer confidence and retail sales trending downwards, while business confidence and industrial production stay robust and exports improve. In the political arena, Angela Merkel announced her intention to seek a fourth term as Chancellor in next year’s parliamentary election, which is expected to be closely fought in light of the rise of the far-right AfD party.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.38||6.92 %||Jan 19|
|Exchange Rate||1.06||-0.77 %||Jan 19|
|Stock Market||11,597||-0.02 %||Jan 19|
Germany Economic Growth
December 20, 2016GDP growth is expected to turn out softer in 2017, as global uncertainty continues to weigh on Germany’s export sector. As such, domestic demand, supported by a tightening labor market and strong wage growth, should continue to be the main engine of growth. Our panel expects GDP to grow 1.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel expects GDP growth of 1.6%.
Germany Economic News
January 11, 2017
Industrial production in November inched down from October’s revised 0.5% expansion (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month) to 0.4%.
December 19, 2016
German business confidence rose in December, with the business confidence index elaborated by the Ifo Institute reaching 111.0, up from 110.4 in November and beating market expectations of 110.7.
December 15, 2016
The Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged down from 55.0 in November to 54.8 in December.
December 9, 2016
The seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus decreased from EUR 21.1 billion in September to EUR 20.5 billion in October, driven down by faster growing imports.
December 7, 2016
German industrial production in October rose 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms compared to the previous month, contrasting the revised 1.6% drop recorded in September.