Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

March 28, 2017

The German economy seems set for a solid first quarter in 2017, with data suggesting that Q4’s momentum extended into the new year. Industrial production swung back to expansion in January following December’s surprise contraction, which had largely been the result of seasonal factors. Business sentiment indicators continued to show signs of strength, implying robust industrial production growth and a recovery in business investment. However, consumer confidence dipped in March as households felt the bite of higher inflation, sparking fears that private consumption-led growth of the past few years could be coming to an end. However, such fears might be overstated as German households are generally in a sound financial position, benefiting from low indebtedness, respectable wage growth and a healthy labor market. On the political front, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU won a resounding victory in Saarland’s state elections in March, while the SPD actually lost some ground. The result poured cold water on the notion that the SPD could coast to victory in the September federal election on the back of Martin Schulz’ popularity alone.

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Germany Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.38-6.21 %Mar 28
Exchange Rate1.09-0.16 %Mar 28
Stock Market12,1491.28 %Mar 28

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Germany Economic Growth

March 28, 2017

GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat this year, in part due to there being fewer working days. Higher inflation should also dampen household consumption growth and the subsiding refugee crisis will likely slow government consumption. Our panel expects GDP to grow 1.6% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel also expects GDP growth of 1.6%.

Germany Economic News

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