Germany Economic Outlook
March 28, 2017The German economy seems set for a solid first quarter in 2017, with data suggesting that Q4’s momentum extended into the new year. Industrial production swung back to expansion in January following December’s surprise contraction, which had largely been the result of seasonal factors. Business sentiment indicators continued to show signs of strength, implying robust industrial production growth and a recovery in business investment. However, consumer confidence dipped in March as households felt the bite of higher inflation, sparking fears that private consumption-led growth of the past few years could be coming to an end. However, such fears might be overstated as German households are generally in a sound financial position, benefiting from low indebtedness, respectable wage growth and a healthy labor market. On the political front, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU won a resounding victory in Saarland’s state elections in March, while the SPD actually lost some ground. The result poured cold water on the notion that the SPD could coast to victory in the September federal election on the back of Martin Schulz’ popularity alone.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.38||-6.21 %||Mar 28|
|Exchange Rate||1.09||-0.16 %||Mar 28|
|Stock Market||12,149||1.28 %||Mar 28|
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Germany Economic Growth
March 28, 2017GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat this year, in part due to there being fewer working days. Higher inflation should also dampen household consumption growth and the subsiding refugee crisis will likely slow government consumption. Our panel expects GDP to grow 1.6% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the panel also expects GDP growth of 1.6%.
Germany Economic News
March 27, 2017
German business confidence rose to 112.3 in March (February: 111.1), the indicator’s highest level since July 2011.
March 24, 2017
The Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 57.0 in March, up from 56.1 in February and the highest mark in almost six years.
March 23, 2017
The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator published by the GfK Group edged down from 10.0 points in March to 9.8 in April, the second consecutive decline. Looking at the detailed breakdown of the components for March, the latest month for which data was available the fall was driven by a fall in income expectations, a result of rising inflation.
March 10, 2017
The seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus inched up from EUR 18.3 billion in December to EUR 18.5 billion in January, driven up by rebounding exports.
March 8, 2017
Industrial production swung from a seasonally-adjusted 2.4% contraction in December to a 2.8% expansion in January.