Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

July 14, 2015

The Ecuadorian economy expanded 3.0% in Q1 2015 over the same period of last year. The expansion represented a slowdown compared to the 3.5% increase seen in Q4 2014. The moderation was due to a substantial slowdown in domestic demand, however the external contribution improved in Q1 with exports accelerating in spite of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and subdued oil prices. Meanwhile, anti-government sentiment in Ecuador is rising. Unpopular cost saving and revenue boosting reforms, proposed by the Correa government, have been met with resistance from opposition leaders and citizens who have responded with a series of ongoing protests. On 15 June, in response to such protests, Correa temporarily withdrew bills pertaining to inheritance and real estate taxes from the country’s parliament.

Ecuador Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)15.015.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,6335,1935,6455,9896,273
GDP (USD bn)69.679.387.694.5101
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.57.95.24.63.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.25.74.14.03.8
Investment (annual variation in %)10.214.310.610.73.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.15.83.45.23.9
Unemployment Rate7.66.04.94.75.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.30.0-0.9-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)19.218.421.324.230.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.35.44.22.73.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.64.55.12.73.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.712.5-3.43.8-19.1
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.284.534.534.535.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-0.4-0.2-1.0-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-2.1-1.7-2.3-2.0
Exports (USD billion)17.522.323.824.825.7
Imports (USD billion)20.624.425.527.127.7
Exports (annual variation in %)26.227.66.54.63.6
Imports (annual variation in %)36.518.74.36.62.2
International Reserves (USD)2.63.02.54.44.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.019.418.319.9-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,218-0.36 %Jul 28

Ecuador Economic Growth

July 14, 2015

Economic headwinds persist for Ecuador in the form of subdued energy prices and a strengthened U.S. dollar. Instability resulting from social unrest will also present a downside risk. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow just 1.3% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage pointsfrom last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect GDP to expand 2.2%.

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