Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

May 16, 2017

The Ecuadorian electoral commission confirmed the victory of Lenín Moreno in the 2 April presidential run-off election against conservative candidate Guillermo Lasso. Mr Lasso had requested a recount of the vote, alleging widespread irregularities—several well respected exit polls had announced him as the winner on election night. The commission only agreed to a recount of some 10% of the ballots and the Organization of American States underwrote the commission’s findings, highlighting the transparency of the process. Lenín Moreno will be officially inaugurated on 24 May. He will have his work cut out, however: the economy, which emerged from recession in the final quarter of last year, is plagued by a very large debt burden. The adjustment process might be slightly easier than initially expected, as the economy gains momentum at the start of the year, according to the Central Bank’s economic activity indicator.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0306,3826,154
GDP (USD bn)79.387.995.1102100
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.65.04.00.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.35.13.80.0
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.43.8-5.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.46.22.9-0.8
Unemployment Rate4.64.14.04.34.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.029.532.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.12.03.13.1-0.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.5-2.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.5-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.823.827.1

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,1380.41 %May 24

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Ecuador Economic Growth

May 16, 2017

Healthier oil prices will provide some level of support to economic growth this year. However, the country’s high debt burden will need to be addressed rapidly by the incoming administration. An abrupt external rebalancing could disrupt the country’s recovery. Our panelists see GDP growing 0.2% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.8%.

Ecuador Economic News

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