Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

March 14, 2017

The country may be on the verge of a regime change after no candidate was able to secure enough votes to win the 22 February presidential election outright, forcing a run-off on 2 April. Former vice-president Lenin Moreno of the ruling leftist populist Alianza País fell short of the 40% share of the vote required to avoid the run-off and will face off against center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso, who came a distant second in the first round. Despite Moreno’s relatively large victory in the first round, he may be unable to improve on his score enough to ensure a win. It appears a majority of the opposition is rallying behind Lasso in the run-up to the final round, with recent polls giving him the edge. It is unclear whether his early lead will hold and translate to the ballot box because he is generally disliked due to his past career as a banker and as an economic advisor to the government during the 1999 financial crisis.

Ecuador Economy Data

Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0086,2976,078
GDP (USD bn)79.387.994.810198.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.75.3-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate6.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.129.933.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.5-3.43.8-19.1-12.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.6-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.824.1-  

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Ecuador Economic Growth

March 14, 2017

Rising oil prices are expected to lift the economy out of recession this year. The outlook remains subject to revision, depending on the outcome of the elections. Whatever the election’s outcome, it appears likely the incoming government will request the IMF’s assistance in dealing with its external debt problems. Our panelists see GDP expanding just 0.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.7%.

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