Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

January 19, 2016

Ecuador’s slump continued into the third quarter of 2015, with the economy contracting 0.8% on a yearly basis, which contrasted the 0.7% increase registered in Q2. The fall was a result of across-the-board decreases in domestic demand components as the economy is beginning to adjust to new global commodity price dynamics. Government revenues have dried up and the hit is now being passed on to the wider economy via cuts to public spending. To make matters worse, international courts have ordered Ecuador to pay USD 980 million to an oil company which had property seized in 2006. The country had already struggled to repay USD 650 million to bond holders in December—its first full repayment in 183 years. The government has turned to China in order to borrow money and close gaps in the 2016 budget through a series of loans amounting to approximately USD 10.5 billion.

Ecuador Economy Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)15.015.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,6335,1935,6455,9896,273
GDP (USD bn)69.679.387.694.5101
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.57.95.24.63.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.25.74.14.03.8
Investment (annual variation in %)10.214.310.610.73.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.15.83.45.23.9
Unemployment Rate7.66.04.94.75.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.30.0-0.9-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)19.218.421.324.230.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.35.44.22.73.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.64.55.12.73.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.712.5-3.43.8-19.1
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.284.534.534.535.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-0.4-0.2-1.0-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-2.1-1.7-2.3-2.0
Exports (USD billion)17.522.323.824.825.7
Imports (USD billion)20.624.425.527.127.7
Exports (annual variation in %)26.227.66.54.63.6
Imports (annual variation in %)36.518.74.36.62.2
International Reserves (USD)2.63.02.54.44.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.019.418.319.9-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,127-0.06 %Feb 05

Ecuador Economic Growth

January 19, 2016

Investment in Ecuador has dried up as public money has shifted toward immediate consumption while the government struggles to stay afloat. This will impact future output even after oil prices finally recover. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect GDP to decrease 0.8% in 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists see the economy growing 1.7% in 2017.

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