Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

July 11, 2017

The Ecuadorian economy accelerated in the first quarter of the year, recording a second consecutive quarter of growth in annual terms. The acceleration was largely fueled by stronger domestic demand, thanks to healthy private consumption and total investment growth. While positive at first glance, the acceleration was actually largely due to a favorable base effect following 2016’s GDP contraction. Indeed, in sequential terms the economy contracted in Q1, reflecting the difficulties the government is having in addressing the economy’s lingering vulnerabilities. In light of the economy’s fragile performance and given the government’s heavy reliance on expensive external financing to fund its current spending, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Ecuador’s credit rating to B- with a stable outlook, down from B.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0306,3826,154
GDP (USD bn)79.387.995.1102100
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.65.04.00.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.35.13.80.0
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.43.8-5.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.46.22.9-0.8
Unemployment Rate4.64.14.04.34.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.029.532.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.12.03.13.11.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.5-2.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.5-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.823.827.1

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,163-0.31 %Jul 26

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Ecuador Economic Growth

July 11, 2017

A healthier oil market could provide the main impetus for growth this year, but serious concerns regarding the sustainability of the country’s fiscal position and financing arrangements will continue to cloud the outlook. Our panelists see GDP growing 0.5% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.8%.

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