Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

August 11, 2015

An array of economic headwinds, including persistently low energy prices, an appreciating USD, and skyrocketing borrowing rates have been pressuring the Ecuadorian economy. Ecuador’s export revenues are down due to low energy prices, forcing the government to revise its deficit targets earlier this year. Ecuador has used the greenback as its official currency since 2000, and although it has provided stability in the past, the country is without a lender of last resort and must rely on outside financing to cover its budget gaps. The country now faces increasingly high borrowing costs from international bond markets and despite trimming pension programs and raising various taxes, the government is still facing a budgetary shortfall. Meeting this shortfall through continued fiscal consolidation will further test the government’s already wavering popularity.

Ecuador Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)15.015.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,6335,1935,6455,9896,273
GDP (USD bn)69.679.387.694.5101
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.57.95.24.63.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.25.74.14.03.8
Investment (annual variation in %)10.214.310.610.73.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.15.83.45.23.9
Unemployment Rate7.66.04.94.75.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.30.0-0.9-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)19.218.421.324.230.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.35.44.22.73.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.64.55.12.73.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.712.5-3.43.8-19.1
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.284.534.534.535.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-0.4-0.2-1.0-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-2.1-1.7-2.3-2.0
Exports (USD billion)17.522.323.824.825.7
Imports (USD billion)20.624.425.527.127.7
Exports (annual variation in %)26.227.66.54.63.6
Imports (annual variation in %)36.518.74.36.62.2
International Reserves (USD)2.63.02.54.44.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.019.418.319.9-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,2170.0 %Aug 25

Ecuador Economic Growth

August 11, 2015

Although Ecuador faces significant challenges, it has demonstrated a strong willingness to encourage investor confidence, and continues to work closely with Chinese partners in order to develop large scale infrastructure projects, including a massive hydroelectric project that’s due to be completed in 2020. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect GDP to expand 2.2%.

Ecuador Economic News

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