Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

February 14, 2017

As the country gears up for general elections on 19 February, the latest polls show that the lead of Lenin Moreno—candidate for the ruling PAIS Alliance (AP) party—is eroding. Polls suggest that it is unlikely Moreno will avoid a run-off and that a high number of voters are still undecided. AP has been hit by a fresh wave of corruption scandals involving Petroecuador, the state oil company. The scandal directly implicates Jorge Glas, Moreno’s running mate and current vice-president. Popular dissatisfaction with AP is expected to result in the party suffering heavy losses, possibly losing its majority in the National Assembly. The elections will take place in the midst of a deep economic slump caused by the low oil price environment of recent years.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0086,2976,078
GDP (USD bn)79.387.994.810198.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.64.63.70.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.34.23.50.3
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.75.3-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.45.63.01.6
Unemployment Rate6.04.94.75.15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.129.933.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.5-3.43.8-19.1-12.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.6-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.824.1-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,071-0.49 %Feb 16

Ecuador Economic Growth

February 14, 2017

The economy is expected to emerge from recession this year, thanks chiefly to rising oil prices. The outlook is still subject to revision, depending on the outcome of the elections. The incoming government will face a steep uphill battle on several fronts, not least the fiscal one. An uptick in exports to the EU following the implementation of a Free Trade Agreement at the beginning of the year could be an upside risk to the outlook. Our panelists see GDP expanding just 0.1% this year, which was revised up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.7%.

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