Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

May 17, 2016

The economic consequences of the massive earthquake that hit Ecuador’s Pacific coast on 16 April will exacerbate struggles in an economy that is already suffering from low prices for oil, its key commodity export. The damage caused by the earthquake will likely lead to a steeper contraction in economic activity and increase already-elevated fiscal pressures. The government estimates that reconstruction costs will amount to 3.0% of GDP and announced an emergency package to help pay for the reconstruction. Measures include increases in several taxes, the possibility of privatizing state assets and issuance of new bonds. While the emergency package is expected to contain some of the mounting fiscal pressure on the government, it will likely drag on consumption and growth as it passes the burden on to the population.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0086,2976,078
GDP (USD bn)79.387.994.810198.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.64.63.70.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.34.23.50.3
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.75.3-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.45.63.01.6
Unemployment Rate6.04.94.75.15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.129.933.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.5-3.43.8-19.1-12.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.6-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.824.1-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,0730.0 %May 26

Ecuador Economic Growth

May 17, 2016

Ecuador’s economic outlook is bleak. The adverse impact of still-low oil prices on Ecuador’s economy coupled with the mounting bill following the earthquake, will cause Ecuador to fall into deep contraction this year. The analysts we surveyed this month cut the 2016 GDP forecast by 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast and now expect GDP to decrease 2.8%. Panelists see the economy just barely returning to growth in 2017 and recording a tepid 0.2% expansion.

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