Ecuador Economic Outlook
April 19, 2016Ecuador’s economy has been hard hit by the oil price collapse and barely grew last year. The consequences of the oil price drop have been exacerbated by the fact that the dollarized economy cannot adjust to external challenges via currency movement, thus putting pressure on wages and domestic demand. GDP expanded just 0.3% in 2015—the lowest reading in 16 years—as exports decelerated severely, fixed investment deteriorated and both public and private consumption growth slowed notably. Quarterly data show that the contraction deepened in Q4. As fiscal revenues are falling in tandem with oil prices, the government announced additional spending cuts in February. Moreover, Parliament is currently discussing a tax reform that increases several taxes, including taxes on tobacco as well as alcoholic and sugary drinks, in order to lift revenues. Meanwhile, on 16 April, Ecuador was struck by a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake in which hundreds of people died and thousands were injured. This was the most devastating earthquake to hit the country in 40 years and the total cost of rescue and cleanup efforts remains to be seen.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic Growth
April 19, 2016The economy will likely take a turn for worse and fall intro contraction this year, as consumption and fixed investment will deteriorate due to the adverse implications of low oil prices on the domestic economy. The contraction in exports, nevertheless, is projected to soften notably. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect GDP to decrease 2.1% in 2016, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists see the economy returning to growth in 2017 and recording a 0.9% expansion.
Ecuador Economic News
April 11, 2016
In February, economic activity recovered, expanding 3.4% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Economica Coyuntural).
April 6, 2016
In March, consumer prices rose 0.14% over the previous month, matching February’s reading.
March 31, 2016
Ecuador’s GDP in Q4 2015 contracted for a second consecutive quarter, recording a 1.2% drop compared to the same quarter last year (Q3: -1.0% year-on-year).
March 11, 2016
In January, economic activity recorded a contraction of 3.6% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Economica Coyuntural).
March 4, 2016
In February, consumer prices rose 0.14% over the previous month, which was below January’s 0.31% increase.