Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

July 12, 2016

Ecuador’s economy is facing a sharp slowdown as it is being dragged down by manifold domestic and external headwinds. As still-low oil prices continue to weigh on exports, Ecuador’s dollarized economy cannot utilize currency adjustments to increase export competitiveness. Economic struggles are exacerbated by the impact of April’s devastating earthquake, as evidenced in that month’s drastic 14.7% drop in economic activity. Private consumption will likely weaken this year on the back of the fiscal measures implemented in the earthquake’s aftermath, and public spending will be restrained by low oil revenues and tight financing conditions. Against this backdrop, the government’s postponing a planned bond issue in June due to heightened marked volatility following the UK’s Brexit vote comes as a setback, as it would have helped to address the country’s dire funding needs.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0086,2976,078
GDP (USD bn)79.387.994.810198.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.64.63.70.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.34.23.50.3
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.75.3-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.45.63.01.6
Unemployment Rate6.04.94.75.15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.129.933.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.5-3.43.8-19.1-12.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.6-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.824.1-  

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,0560.90 %Jul 26

Ecuador Economic Growth

July 12, 2016

Ecuador is expected to fall into a severe recession this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP contracting 2.9% this year, which is unchanged points from last month’s forecast. Panelists forecast the economy to decline a softer 0.2% in 2017.

Ecuador Economic News

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