Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

September 13, 2016

Ecuador’s dollarized economy is facing myriad pressing issues that stem from subdued oil prices, a strengthened dollar and the aftermath of April’s earthquake. The country has undertaken fiscal and external adjustments that signal its commitment to maintain the official dollarization, which is widely regarded as conducive to macroeconomic stability. Nonetheless, the strengthening dollar has weighed on Ecuador’s exporting sector, with many of its major regional trading partners depreciating their currencies. In turn, reduced revenues have hit the country’s finances, exacerbated by depressed income from oil-related exports. In an effort to rein in the country’s fiscal deficit, the government slashed capital expenditure and imposed several tax increases earlier this year. These, however, have put a strain on wages and public spending, prompting domestic demand to deteriorate and causing economic growth to plummet to a record low in Q1. Against this backdrop, Fitch Ratings cut Ecuador’s rating outlook to negative in late August.

Ecuador Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)15.315.515.816.016.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,1935,6656,0086,2976,078
GDP (USD bn)79.387.994.810198.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.95.64.63.70.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.34.23.50.3
Investment (annual variation in %)14.310.610.75.3-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.83.45.63.01.6
Unemployment Rate6.04.94.75.15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.1-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.421.224.129.933.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.22.73.73.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.55.12.73.64.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.5-3.43.8-19.1-12.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.534.535.185.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-0.2-1.0-0.6-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.2-0.9-0.6-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.2
Exports (USD billion)22.323.824.825.718.3
Imports (USD billion)24.425.525.527.721.5
Exports (annual variation in %)27.66.54.63.5-28.7
Imports (annual variation in %)18.74.30.08.8-22.4
International Reserves (USD)3.02.54.44.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.418.219.824.1-  

Sample Report

5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,0342.25 %Sep 29

Ecuador Economic Growth

September 13, 2016

The outlook remains grim, with higher taxes affecting private consumption and capital cuts hurting investment and government consumption. Our panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% this year, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists expect the economy to record a softer decline of 0.2% in 2017.

Ecuador Economic News

Search form