Ecuador Economic Outlook
February 14, 2017As the country gears up for general elections on 19 February, the latest polls show that the lead of Lenin Moreno—candidate for the ruling PAIS Alliance (AP) party—is eroding. Polls suggest that it is unlikely Moreno will avoid a run-off and that a high number of voters are still undecided. AP has been hit by a fresh wave of corruption scandals involving Petroecuador, the state oil company. The scandal directly implicates Jorge Glas, Moreno’s running mate and current vice-president. Popular dissatisfaction with AP is expected to result in the party suffering heavy losses, possibly losing its majority in the National Assembly. The elections will take place in the midst of a deep economic slump caused by the low oil price environment of recent years.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic Growth
February 14, 2017The economy is expected to emerge from recession this year, thanks chiefly to rising oil prices. The outlook is still subject to revision, depending on the outcome of the elections. The incoming government will face a steep uphill battle on several fronts, not least the fiscal one. An uptick in exports to the EU following the implementation of a Free Trade Agreement at the beginning of the year could be an upside risk to the outlook. Our panelists see GDP expanding just 0.1% this year, which was revised up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.7%.
Ecuador Economic News
February 14, 2017
In December, economic activity expanded 3.3% year-on-year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Índice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural).
February 8, 2017
In January, consumer prices increased 0.1% over the previous month, just under December’s 0.2% increase.
January 13, 2017
Ecuadorians will head to the polls on 19 February to elect a new president and members for the 137-seat National Assembly at a moment when the economy is stuck in the deepest recession seen since its dollarization.
January 6, 2017
In December, consumer prices increased 0.16% over the previous month, contrasting November’s 0.15% decrease.
December 29, 2016
The Ecuadorian economy is showing signs of a weak recovery.