Ecuador Economic Outlook
January 17, 2017Ecuador’s embattled economy continued to shrink in the third quarter of 2016, albeit at the slowest pace in a year. GDP fell by 1.6% annually, a marked improvement from the 2.2% drop observed in Q2. The recent rally in oil prices triggered by OPEC’s agreement to curtail oil production, which includes Ecuador’s pledge to cut output by 26,000 barrels per day, has barely provided any respite to the state’s coffers. These are becoming increasingly exposed to mounting interest payments as the country struggles to finance the fiscal gap for 2016. The price rally has, however, increased investors’ appetite for oil-levered credit. In a bid to capitalize on this renewed demand and ahead of February’s presidential election and any Fed interest rate hike, the government tapped the bond market twice between December and January for a combined amount of USD 1.75 billion at a yield of 9.65%.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic Growth
January 17, 2017The outlook for this year will largely depend on the outcome of February’s presidential election. The new executive will have to deal with a country in desperate need of fiscal adjustment, which is plagued by an excessively costly external debt burden—considering its limited size—and weak macroeconomic fundamentals. Some consolation comes however from upside risks to growth including higher oil prices and a sizeable pick-up in Ecuadorian exports to the EU following the implementation of an FTA in January. Our panelists see GDP contracting 0.3% this year. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.8%.
Ecuador Economic News
January 13, 2017
Ecuadorians will head to the polls on 19 February to elect a new president and members for the 137-seat National Assembly at a moment when the economy is stuck in the deepest recession seen since its dollarization.
January 6, 2017
In December, consumer prices increased 0.16% over the previous month, contrasting November’s 0.15% decrease.
December 29, 2016
The Ecuadorian economy is showing signs of a weak recovery.
December 12, 2016
In October, economic activity expanded 17.9% year-on-year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Índice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural).
December 6, 2016
In November, consumer prices decreased 0.15% from the previous month, which was slightly below October’s 0.08% fall.