Ecuador Economic Outlook
November 10, 2015Although Ecuador’s dollarized economy has helped maintain stability in the past, the inability of the currency to adjust to falling demand for exports, particularly oil and gas, has resulted in a deterioration in the terms of trade. This has put downward pressure on wages, production, and crucially, on government revenues. To make matters worse, a World Bank court ruled in late October that the government must pay USD 1 billion to Occidental Petroleum Corporation, after the previous government had seized the oil company’s assets in 2006. This has led to increased financing needs and higher credit costs. Aside from slashing expenditures and raising taxes and tariffs, the Correa government plans on selling off large tracts of land for mining exploration in the beginning of 2016 in order to shore up its fiscal position.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic Growth
November 10, 2015The impact of external oil price shocks drove Ecuador into a recession in the first half of the year, and will continue to weigh on the country’s growth prospects going forward. The severity of the effect will vary depending on the availability of government financing. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast have adjusted their expectations accordingly and have cut their 2015 GDP growth forecasts by 0.3 percentage points from last month, to 0.2%. For 2016, panelists see growth inching down to 0.1%.
Ecuador Economic News
November 20, 2015
In September, economic activity fell 0.7% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Economica Coyuntural).
November 9, 2015
In October, consumer prices fell 0.09% over the previous month, which contrasted September’s 0.26% increase and marked the lowest reading in over two years.
October 13, 2015
In August, economic activity increased a modest 0.5% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Economica Coyuntural).
October 6, 2015
In September, consumer prices increased 0.26% over the previous month, which was up from flat reading seen in August.
October 1, 2015
In Q2 2015, GDP grew 1.0% over the same quarter of the previous year, which came in below the revised 3.3% increase registered in Q1 (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year) and represented the slowest pace of growth since Q1 2010.