Ecuador Economic Outlook
October 11, 2016Ecuador’s oil-exporting economy remains stuck in the deepest recession seen since its dollarization. Nonetheless, the pace of contraction eased in the second quarter as a slight increase oil prices and output drove a healthy expansion in exports. GDP fell by 2.2% in Q2 in annual terms, which was notably above the record-low 4.0% drop in Q1. Fixed investment and total consumption decreased on the back of unsupportive fiscal policies—including a reduction in capital expenditure and higher taxes and tariffs. These measures form part of the government’s bid to keep the budget deficit in check as it suffers from still-low oil prices. In order to meet its financing needs, the government raised USD 1.0 billion in five-year bonds on 27 September at a yield of 10.75%. The preliminary agreement reached by OPEC members in late September to cut global oil production was received well by the Ecuadorian authorities, which see this as an opportunity for oil prices to pick up significantly and shore up the state’s revenues.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic Growth
October 11, 2016The outlook remains bleak as the strong currency weighs on numerous sectors and the high fiscal burden cripples private consumption. Our panelists see GDP contracting 2.6% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists expect the economy to record a softer decline of 0.3% in 2017.
Ecuador Economic News
October 11, 2016
In August, economic activity recorded an annual contraction of 2.8%, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Índice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural).
October 7, 2016
In September, consumer prices rose 0.15% over the previous month, contrasting August’s 0.16% decrease.
October 3, 2016
The Ecuadorian economy performed slightly better in the second quarter, the result of gradually improving oil prices and an increase in crude output.
September 8, 2016
In July, economic activity plummeted and recorded the largest contraction in over ten years.
September 6, 2016
In August, consumer prices fell 0.16% over the previous month, the lowest reading in over three years.