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Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Our panelists expect MENA’s GDP growth to gain pace in 2025 from 2024, aided by declining inflation, interest rates and OPEC+ output curbs. That said, rising protectionism may constrain exports, and weak oil prices could hit public outlays. Key factors to watch include OPEC+ decisions, U.S. trade policies and regional conflicts.

Middle East & North Africa Inflation

Inflation in the region should soften in 2025, while continuing to differ sharply between countries. Price rises will likely stay weak in dollar-pegged economies, but remain at double-digit rates in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen due to subsidy cuts, currency drops, a lack of supplies and inadequate policies.

This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2024.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Public Debt (% of GDP) 56.4 52.9 43.6 45.0 47.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 4.4 9.5 5.3 3.2
GDP per Capita (USD) 7,134 8,543 10,039 9,489 9,714
External Debt (% of GDP) 49.3 45.3 40.3 42.7 43.4
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -3.6 5.1 7.5 2.2 2.0
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.08 1.98 5.60 6.74 6.72
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 840 1,173 1,215 1,432 1,429
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 10.8 10.2 11.5 8.4 11.2
Investment (annual variation in %) -8.0 - 19.7 2.8 1.4
Private Consumption (annual variation in %) -3.5 - 7.4 5.4 4.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 774 890 783 1,119 1,222
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.3 -2.9 2.6 -1.7 -3.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.6 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.2 7.2 9.4 10.7 7.4
International Reserves (USD bn) 1,034 1,115 1,147 1,218 1,273
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.9 5.5 11.1 -0.5 -0.4

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