Economic Snapshot for MENA
November 29, 2019
Economic growth is set to accelerate notably in 2020
Although economic growth is projected to gain steam next year, risks to the economic outlook are skewed to the downside. Particularly, if OPEC+ decides to extend the oil cut deal at the December meeting, this would limit the expected recovery among those countries dependent on oil exports. Moreover, rising domestic political unrest could hit regional growth in 2020.
MENA Monetary & Financial Sector News
Inflation in the Middle East and North Africa slowed further in October to 4.8% from 6.0% in September, according to preliminary data. The decline mostly reflected falling inflation in Iran as well as in Algeria, Egypt and Kuwait. Overall, regional inflation will decline in 2020 compared to this year on the back of softer price gains in Egypt, Iran and Tunisia.
In recent weeks, the Central Bank of Egypt sharply cut its main policy rates in order to bring inflation back to the Bank’s target, while Israel’s Central Bank left the key rate unchanged. That said, most central banks in MENA manage currency pegs, mostly against the USD or a basket of currencies including the USD or the EUR, and thus lack independent monetary policies.
The EGP and the ILS both appreciated against the USD in recent weeks. That said, most remaining countries in the region maintain a de jure or de facto currency peg against the U.S. dollar or a basket of currencies mostly composed of the USD and the EUR.
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Middle East & North Africa Economic News
Israel: Exports and imports decline in November
December 11, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 1.0% in November in USD terms, following October’s revised 24.3% drop (previously reported: -21.8% year-on-year), amid a challenging external environment.
Israel: Business and consumer sentiment worsen in November
December 10, 2019
Confidence among Israeli households worsened from minus 10 in October to minus 14 in November.
Saudi Arabia: Non-oil PMI continues to climb in November
December 5, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, jumped from October’s 57.8 to 58.3 in November.
United Arab Emirates: PMI withers to a decade low in November
December 5, 2019
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was ticked down to 50.3 in November from 51.1 in October—the lowest reading since August 2009.
Saudi Arabia: Oil prices recover in November; Aramco announces IPO for December
November 26, 2019
Oil prices steadily increased in recent weeks, supported by optimism linked to talks of a “phase one” trade deal between China and the United States, as well as expectations that OPEC+ production cuts will be extended.
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