Economic Snapshot for MENA
January 10, 2023
Economic Growth
GDP growth in the Middle East & North Africa will soften to near the 10-year pre-pandemic average this year. Rate hikes, stagnating oil production and weakening external demand will all weigh on activity. Key factors to watch include changes to OPEC+ quotas, U.S. Fed hikes, extreme weather, geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine grain deal—which was recently extended to mid-March 2023.
Inflation Outlook
Inflation should decline this year as monetary policy tightens and currencies stabilize. That said, it will remain notably higher than before the pandemic as energy and food prices are set to remain elevated. Risks include extreme weather, the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and unexpected currency devaluations.
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Middle East & North Africa Economic News
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Saudi Arabia: Oil prices keep falling in December as global economic outlook remains glum
January 10, 2023
The OPEC oil basket traded at USD 79.7 per barrel in December on average, down 11.2% from the prior month.
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Egypt: Inflation continues to rise in December; comes in at five-year high
January 10, 2023
Inflation accelerated to 21.3% in December, up from November’s 18.8%, moving further above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 5.0–9.0% target band—where it has been for the past 10 months.
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Egypt: PMI improves, but conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in December
January 4, 2023
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the non-oil private sector, rose to 47.2 in December, up from November’s five-month low of 45.4.
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Saudi Arabia: Non-oil PMI falls in December
January 3, 2023
The Non-oil S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 56.9 in December from November’s 58.5.
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Israel: Bank of Israel hikes for seventh straight meeting in January
January 2, 2023
At its 2 January meeting, the Bank of Israel (BoI) raised the policy rate from 3.25% to 3.75%. The decision to hike was once again driven by a desire to dampen broad-based price pressures; both inflation and core inflation moved further above the Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range in November.
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