Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
After a subdued start, our panelists expect regional GDP growth to accelerate this year versus 2024, driven by easing inflation, interest rates and OPEC+ output curbs. Still, rising protectionism may limit exports, and weak oil prices could restrain public outlays. Key risks include OPEC+ moves, U.S. trade shifts and regional unrest.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Inflation in the region should ease this year, while continuing to diverge between countries. Price increases will likely stay subdued in dollar-pegged economies, while remaining at double-digit rates in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen amid subsidy cuts, currency slides, supply shortfalls and policy missteps.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.4 | 52.9 | 43.6 | 45.0 | 47.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | 1,430 | 1,428 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,134 | 8,543 | 10,039 | 9,489 | 9,714 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 48.8 | 45.0 | 40.0 | 42.7 | 41.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | - | 7.4 | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | 1,119 | 1,222 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.3 | -2.9 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -3.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.1 | - | 19.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.08 | 1.98 | 5.60 | 6.74 | 6.72 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 | 1,273 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.8 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 11.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.9 | 5.5 | 11.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 |