Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Our panelists see MENA’s GDP growth gaining steam in 2025 and further in 2026, aided by lower inflation and interest rates plus the easing of OPEC+ production restrictions. That said, rising trade protectionism will cap exports, and subdued oil prices will limit government spending. A key downside risk is a flare-up in Israel-Iran tensions.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Regional inflation is seen cooling this year vs last, and further in 2026. That said, sharp differences across countries will persist: Dollar-pegged economies are set to see soft price growth, while Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen are expected to suffer higher inflation rates due to a mix of weak currencies, supply shortages and economic dysfunction.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2025 to 2018.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | 779 | 1,156 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | 1,026 | 1,346 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,134 | 8,543 | 10,040 | 9,492 | 9,710 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.7 | 5.3 | 11.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 | 1,273 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.3 | 45.3 | 40.3 | 43.1 | 43.4 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | 4.3 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 66 | 282 | 532 | 247 | 190 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.4 | 53.0 | 43.6 | 44.9 | 47.3 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.6 | -2.8 | 2.5 | -1.5 | -2.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.08 | 1.98 | 5.60 | 6.74 | 6.72 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.0 | 4.7 | 18.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |