Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for MENA

January 10, 2023

Economic Growth

GDP growth in the Middle East & North Africa will soften to near the 10-year pre-pandemic average this year. Rate hikes, stagnating oil production and weakening external demand will all weigh on activity. Key factors to watch include changes to OPEC+ quotas, U.S. Fed hikes, extreme weather, geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine grain deal—which was recently extended to mid-March 2023.

Inflation Outlook

Inflation should decline this year as monetary policy tightens and currencies stabilize. That said, it will remain notably higher than before the pandemic as energy and food prices are set to remain elevated. Risks include extreme weather, the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and unexpected currency devaluations.

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