Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for MENA

July 7, 2021

GDP forecast to expand solidly in 2021

Regional GDP will expand solidly in 2021. Oil exporters are set to gain from higher average crude prices and the ongoing easing of OPEC+ cuts, while countries across the region should benefit from the vaccine rollout, easing restrictions and stronger demand abroad. However, geopolitical tensions, fragile fiscal positions and pandemic-related uncertainty pose downside risks.

Inflation to ticked down down

Regional inflation ticked down to 14.2% in May from April’s 14.4%, amid weaker price pressures in Iran and Lebanon. This year, regional inflation should pick up slightly due to stronger price pressures from healthier economic activity. That said, depreciation fueled inflation in Iran and Lebanon will likely moderate, limiting the overall upturn in prices.

 
 

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