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Middle East & North Africa Economic Forecast

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Our panelists see MENA’s GDP growth gaining steam in 2025 and further in 2026, aided by lower inflation and interest rates plus the easing of OPEC+ production restrictions. That said, rising trade protectionism will cap exports, and subdued oil prices will limit government spending. A key downside risk is a flare-up in Israel-Iran tensions.

Middle East & North Africa Inflation

Regional inflation is seen cooling this year vs last, and further in 2026. That said, sharp differences across countries will persist: Dollar-pegged economies are set to see soft price growth, while Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen are expected to suffer higher inflation rates due to a mix of weak currencies, supply shortages and economic dysfunction.

This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2025 to 2018.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 774 890 783 779 1,156
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 840 1,173 1,215 1,026 1,346
Private Consumption (annual variation in %) -3.5 5.6 7.1 5.4 4.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 7,134 8,543 10,040 9,492 9,710
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.7 5.3 11.2 -0.5 -0.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 1,034 1,115 1,147 1,218 1,273
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.2 7.2 9.4 10.7 7.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 49.3 45.3 40.3 43.1 43.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 4.3 9.5 4.5 3.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 66 282 532 247 190
Public Debt (% of GDP) 56.4 53.0 43.6 44.9 47.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 10.8 10.3 11.6 8.4 11.5
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -3.6 5.1 7.5 2.2 2.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.6 -2.8 2.5 -1.5 -2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.6 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.08 1.98 5.60 6.74 6.72
Investment (annual variation in %) -8.0 4.7 18.4 2.8 1.5

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