Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for regional GDP growth to speed up this year vs 2024 thanks to lower inflation and interest rates plus the rollback of OPEC+ output restrictions. That said, exports could be capped by greater global protectionism, and government spending by subdued oil prices. Future OPEC+ output decisions, U.S. trade policy and regional conflict are key risks.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Regional inflation will moderate this year, though rates will be disparate between countries. Price growth is likely to stay muted in U.S. dollar-pegged economies, while averaging well in the double digits in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen due to a mixture of subsidy cuts, currency weakness, shortages and economic mismanagement.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.09 | 1.99 | 5.61 | 6.74 | 6.73 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,070 | 8,482 | 9,967 | 9,245 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,034 | 1,115 | 1,147 | 1,218 | 1,273 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 7.4 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 1.5 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | - | 7.4 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 774 | 890 | 783 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.4 | -2.9 | 2.6 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | 4.4 | 9.5 | - | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.0 | - | 19.7 | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.4 | 53.0 | 43.6 | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 49.2 | 45.2 | 40.3 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 840 | 1,173 | 1,215 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.9 | 5.5 | 11.1 | -0.5 | - |