Merchandise exports rebound in February

Latest reading: Merchandise exports rebounded 26.0% over the same month last year in February (January: -4.2% yoy), partly due to shifting Lunar New Year holidays and front-loading of shipments to the U.S., given reciprocal tariff risks. February’s result marked the most robust increase since January 2024 and exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, merchandise imports shot up 40.1% on an annual basis in February (January: -2.7% yoy), marking the strongest reading since May 2021. As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 1.5 billion deficit in February (January 2025: USD 3.0 billion surplus; February 2024: USD 1.4 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 20.4 billion surplus in February, compared to the USD 23.3 billion surplus in January.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese merchandise exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 6 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable merchandise exports forecast available for Vietnamese merchandise exports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese merchandise exports projections.

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