Retail sales post quickest growth since January 2023 in March

Latest reading: Retail sales rose 1.5% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in March, which was above February's flat reading and slightly higher than market forecasts. The March figure was the best reading since January 2023 and largely reflected upturns in motor vehicle and parts dealers and general merchandise stores sales, with the former potentially driven by consumers front-loading purchases ahead of auto tariffs. On an annual basis, retail sales increased 4.6% in March, which was better than February’s 3.5% expansion.

Panelist insight: On the data, Nomura analysts said: “[The March retail sales figure] does not shed light on how consumers reacted to the sentiment shock and market stress following the 2 April tariff announcements. Overall though, this supports the view that consumer fundamentals were solid coming into the year, which should provide some buffer against the negative impulse from tariffs.”

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