Retail Sales in USA
USA - Retail Sales
Retail sales record weakest reading in six months in October
Retail sales expanded 0.3% on a month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, which followed September's 1.6% increase and marked the weakest reading since April. October’s reading also undershot market expectations of a 0.5% gain, and was likely influenced by the lack of extra fiscal stimulus and a surge in coronavirus cases. The slowdown was primarily driven by weaker growth in motor vehicle and parts dealers sales. In addition, general merchandise stores sales contracted.
On an annual basis, retail sales rose at a softer pace of 5.7% in October (September: +5.9% yoy). Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth rose to 0.6% in October (September: +0.4%), signaling an improving trend in the retail trade sector.
Looking forward, the acceleration of the Covid-19 pandemic, tightening restrictions in some states and the lapsing of government support measures bode poorly for consumer spending in the coming months, although a vaccine and possible second stimulus package once Biden takes office offer some hope.
According to Maria Solovieva, economist at TD Economics:
“In November, more than a dozen states and the District of Columbia extended restrictive measures, limiting gatherings, reducing capacity at restaurants, advising against traveling and urging citizens to remain at home. Even without renewed shutdowns, the coronavirus resurgence risks depressing spending. A pickup in growth will have to wait for a vaccine, which fortunately, looks to be made available earlier than previously expected in the first half of next year.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 4.3% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the panel sees private consumption increasing 3.1%.
United States - Retail Sales Data
|Retail Sales (annual variation in %)||2.6||3.0||4.3||4.5||3.6|
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United States Retail Sales Chart
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|Bond Yield||1.92||-0.43 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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November 17, 2020
Retail sales expanded 0.3% on a month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, which followed September's 1.6% increase and marked the weakest reading since April.
November 12, 2020
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.04% in October over the previous month, coming in below September's 0.20% increase.
November 6, 2020
Total non-farm payrolls rose 638,000 in October, beating market analysts’ expectations of a 600,000 increase.
United States: Fed keeps rates at effective floor and sustains commitment to expanding its balance sheet
November 5, 2020
At its 4–5 November meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its effective floor of 0.00%–0.25%.
November 2, 2020
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased to 59.3 in October from 55.4 in September, beating market expectations of 55.8 and marking the highest reading in just over two years.