Retail sales rebound in June

Latest reading: Retail sales grew 0.6% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in June (May: -0.9% mom), easily beating market expectations. June's pickup was broad-based, with the motor vehicle and parts dealers, food and beverages and general merchandise stores sub-sectors all gaining steam. On an annual basis, retail sales rose at a faster rate of 3.9% in June (May: +3.3% yoy). Accordingly, the trend improved, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at 3.7% in June, up from May's 3.6%.

Panelist insight: TD Economics’ Ksenia Bushmeneva said: “The improvement in sales coincides with recent signs of stabilization in consumer confidence. Although still at a low level, sentiment has steadied in recent weeks as economic uncertainty eased somewhat, financial markets recovered, gas prices declined, and the labor market continued to churn out jobs.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American retail projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable retail forecast available for American retail.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American retail projections.

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