Retail Sales in USA
USA - Retail Sales
Strong retail sales growth in June rounds out solid second quarter for consumer spending
Nominal retail sales rose 0.4% over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, matching May’s revised 0.4% increase (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month). The solid outturn surpassed market expectations of a weaker 0.1% rise and concluded an overall strong quarter of household spending in Q2, highlighting sustained consumer optimism despite signs of weakening growth elsewhere in the economy. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services—also known as “core” retail sales as they most closely reflect private consumption in the GDP readings—surged 0.7% month-on-month in June, up from 0.6% in May.
June’s increase came on the back of a rebound in sales of clothing; furniture; and building materials, garden equipment, and supplies, the latter of which could signal a pick-up in construction activity in the month. Moreover, sales at food and beverage stores gained momentum, while restaurant sales rose at another strong pace in June following May’s robust rise. Meanwhile, sustained sales in more discretionary spending also supported the headline figure. Retail sales of auto dealers—usually a very volatile category— had a solid showing in June, while non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, also surged again. June’s performance came despite a sharp drop in gasoline sales, as prices at the pump fell notably during the month, but which likely freed up consumers’ discretionary income.
In annual terms, retail sales growth clocked in at 3.4% in June, up from May’s revised 2.9% (previously reported: +3.2% year-on-year). Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth edged down to 3.8% in June from 4.0% in May.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees private consumption increasing 1.9%.
United States - Retail Sales Data
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United States: Strong retail sales growth in June rounds out solid second quarter for consumer spending
July 16, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 0.4% over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, matching May’s revised 0.4% increase (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month).
United States: Headline inflation weakens in June; Federal Reserve rate cut appears increasingly imminent
July 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in June, increasing by the same margin as in May.
United States: Strong payroll gains in June assuage investors’ fear and decrease odds of a July Fed rate cut
July 5, 2019
The June jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed a sharp rebound in payroll growth following a meek reading in May, suggesting that economic momentum—while waning—remains quite resilient for now, and somewhat reducing the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting on 30–31 July.
July 1, 2019
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell from 52.1 in May to 51.7 in June, the lowest reading since November 2016.
United States: Consumer confidence falls to near two-year low in June on pessimistic shift in expectations
June 25, 2019
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index sharply fell from a revised 131.3 in May (previously reported: 134.1) to 121.5 in June, wildly missing market expectations of 132.0.