Inflation in USA
USA - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation continues to ease in May
Consumer prices fell 0.1% over the previous month in May missing market expectations of no change, but softer than April’s 0.8% dip. A fall in energy prices and a weaker increase in food prices was chiefly behind May’s print. Core consumer prices—which exclude volatile items such as food and energy—also fell 0.1% in May (April: -0.4% month-on-month).
Inflation ticked down to 0.1% in May—the lowest level since September 2015—from 0.3% in April, and came in a notch below market expectations of 0.2% inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation decreased to 1.2% from 1.4% in the month prior. The core personal consumption expenditures price index—a gauge of household spending closely tracked by the Fed—dipped to 0.5% in April, the latest month for which data is available, from 1.3% in March and falling further below the Fed’s 2.0% target.
Looking ahead, depressed employment levels will likely continue to hit demand and keep price pressures at bay in the coming months. Moreover, hydrocarbon prices should tread well below levels seen last year, which will weigh further on inflationary pressures.
The Fed’s monetary stimulus should only begin to stoke price pressures once domestic demand begins to recover, but should help to combat disinflationary pressures, to some extent.
FocusEconomics participants expect inflation to average 0.7% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects inflation to average 1.6%.
United States - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||0.6||2.1||2.1||1.9||2.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Inflation (eop) Chart
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||1.92||-0.43 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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July 2, 2020
Total non-farm payrolls soared 4.8 million in June, increasing at the fastest rate since the series began in 1939, and beat market analysts’ expectations of a 3.0 million rise.
July 1, 2020
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased from 43.6 in May to 52.6 in June, beating market expectations of 49.5 and marking the highest reading in 14 months.
June 30, 2020
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index—excluding Detroit due to reporting delays—eased to 0.9% month-on-month in April, down from March’s 1.1% rise.
June 16, 2020
Nominal retail sales surged at the fastest rate in the series’ near three-decade history in May, jumping 17.7% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms.
United States: Fed keeps rates at effective floor and additional stimulus measures unchanged in June
June 10, 2020
At its 9–10 June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the target range for the federal funds rate at its effective floor of 0.00%–0.25%.