Inflation in USA
USA - Inflation
Inflation cools again in February
Consumer prices increased 0.2% over the prior month in February, accelerating from the flat print recorded in January and matching market expectations. The figure marked the first month-on-month uptick in four months and was primarily driven by higher costs for food and energy, which rebounded on crude oil gains and consequently higher prices at the pump. On the other hand, core consumer prices—which exclude volatile items such as food and energy—rose 0.1% in February, down from January’s 0.2% increase, and weighed on by falling prices for new and used vehicles, and medical care, particularly for prescription drugs.
Inflation eased to 1.5% in February from 1.6% in January, dragged down by a significant drop in the volatile energy index due to falling gasoline and fuel costs. Meanwhile, core inflation—a closely watched indicator for forecasting future monetary policy moves—edged down to 2.1% in February from 2.2% in January.
February’s results signal that core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, could track below its 2.0% target if underlying inflation continues softening. Nevertheless, wage pressures driven by a tight labor market and signs that some of February’s weakness could be temporary suggest inflation may not yet be on a downward trend. Regardless, the report could give the Fed additional confirmation to maintain its wait-and-see approach before its next rate hike, which the majority of FocusEconomics panelist currently have penciled in the second half of the year.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel also expects inflation to average 2.2%.
United States - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.5||1.6||0.1||1.3||2.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Inflation Chart
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||2.64||-0.43 %||Mar 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||25,651||0.02 %||Mar 11|
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March 12, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.2% over the prior month in February, accelerating from the flat print recorded in January and matching market expectations.
March 11, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis in January, recovering marginally from December’s downwardly revised 1.6% sharp plunge (previously reported: -1.2% month-on-month), and mildly beating market expectations of a flat print.
United States: Weak February jobs report nonetheless sees wage pressures rising; confirms strong January reading
March 8, 2019
The February jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows payrolls barely budged in the month after a strong start of the year, adding to concerns about an economic slowdown.
United States: ISM manufacturing index dips to over two-year low in February on softer output and domestic demand
March 1, 2019
The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to seesaw in the first months of 2019, losing ground in February after sharply recovering in the previous month from a year-end slump.
February 28, 2019
According to an initial estimate of fourth quarter GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy continued to soften at the end of 2018, but nevertheless performed better than expected on a robust outturn of business spending.