Inflation in USA
USA - Inflation
Inflation edges up in October but core inflation cools
Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, up from a flat reading in September and a notch above market expectations. A sharp rise in energy costs—due to a rebound in gasoline prices—and a surge in medical care costs to a three-year high largely drove the print, although price gains were made across a wide range of categories. Conversely, the increase in shelter prices, which account for a third of the index, was relatively subdued in October. Core consumer prices—which exclude volatile items such as food and energy—rose 0.2% in October, after September’s 0.1% increase.
Inflation ticked up to 1.8% in October from 1.7% in September, overshooting market expectations of a stable print. On the other hand, core inflation slowed to 2.3% from 2.4% in September. The core PCE price index—an indicator closely followed by the Fed—inched down to 1.7% in September (August: 1.8%), the latest month for which data is available, and thus continued to track below the Fed’s 2.0% target.
Commenting on the results, Leslie Preston, senior economist at TD Economics, noted:
“In general, all seems quiet on the inflation front. […]. This well-behaved pattern is expected to continue in the coming quarters. This will provide ample justification for the Fed to take a prolonged pause on interest rates, as it assesses the impact of this year's rate cuts on the economy, whether global demand is showing signs of improvement, and how China-U.S. trade relations unfold.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.1% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects inflation to average 2.0%.
United States - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.5||1.6||0.1||1.3||2.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Inflation Chart
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||1.47||-0.43 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||1.10||0.65 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||26,355||0.02 %||Sep 04|
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November 13, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, up from a flat reading in September and a notch above market expectations.
November 1, 2019
The latest jobs report shows the labor market remained strong at the start of the fourth quarter.
November 1, 2019
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.3 in October from 47.8 in September; however, the index undershot market expectations of 49.3 and remained below the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the sector.
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October 30, 2019
At its 29–30 October monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%–1.75%.