Exports G&S in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Exports Goods and Services
Activity rebounds in the second quarter as the economy reopens
GDP rebounded in the second quarter, growing 4.8% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis and contrasting the 1.6% contraction logged in the first quarter. The reading was aided by the marked easing of lockdown restrictions in the period, both at home and abroad, although the economy was still 2.2% below its pre-pandemic level in June.
The upturn reflected a broad-based improvement in private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports. Private consumption bounced back, growing 7.3% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q2 and contrasting the 4.4% contraction in Q1. Public consumption accelerated to a 6.1% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +1.5% s.a. qoq), reflecting the reopening of schools and a rise in non-Covid-19-related healthcare activity. Fixed investment dropped at a slower rate of 0.5% in Q2, following the 1.7% decrease in the prior quarter. While government investment declined, business investment picked up amid improved sentiment among firms.
Exports of goods and services increased 3.0% on a seasonally-adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter, which contrasted the first quarter's 6.1% contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 6.5% in Q2 (Q1: -13.5% s.a. qoq). As a result, the external sector subtracted from growth in the period.
On an annual basis, the economy bounced back in Q2, with GDP growing 22.2% and contrasting the previous period's 6.1% fall.
Momentum should slow in H2 as pent-up demand eases and government labor market support is likely wound down. Moreover, the surge in Covid-19 cases appeared to dent activity early in Q3 due to ensuing supply disruptions as workers were forced to self-isolate. However, the overall expansion should be robust nonetheless, thanks to strong private consumption as households continue to run down their savings.
Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, commented:
“Despite persistent virus-related uncertainties and intensifying supply-chain issues that are holding back production, the UK remains on track to fully recover from the pandemic shock by Q1 2022.”
FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.6% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 5.4% in 2022.
United Kingdom - Exports G&S Data
|Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)||3.8||2.7||6.1||1.2||4.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.83||-3.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
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September 1, 2021
According to the Nationwide Building Society, house prices in the United Kingdom rose 2.1% month-on-month in August, following July’s 0.6% drop.
August 23, 2021
The IHS Markit Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.3 in August from July's 59.2, held back by staff and supply shortages amid a surge in Covid-19 cases which saw many people forced to self-isolate.
August 20, 2021
Consumer confidence came in at minus 8.0 in August, down from July's minus 7.0.
August 18, 2021
Consumer prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.02% in July over the previous month, contrasting June's 0.50% rise.
August 17, 2021
According to the ONS, in April–June the unemployment rate registered 4.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from Q1.