Interest Rate in Ukraine
Ukraine - Interest Rate
Central Bank holds the key policy rate stable in March
At its 14 March meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) held the key policy rate stable at 18.00%, leaving it at a near three-year high. The decision marked the fifth consecutive meeting where the policy stance remained unchanged and was in line with the expectations of market analysts.
The Bank’s decision came against the backdrop of gradually receding inflationary pressures at the beginning of 2019—in line with the Bank’s early-year predictions—and ahead of the unpredictable presidential election scheduled for 31 March. Inflation moderated from 9.2% in January to 8.8% in February, the lowest reading in over two years. As a result, it edged closer to the Central Bank’s 6.5% plus or minus 2.0 percentage points target range.
In its communiqué, the NBU emphasized its tight monetary policy stance as the main underlying reason for easing inflationary pressures and for gradually improving inflation expectations, which were also supported by the strengthening hryvnia. Furthermore, the NBU sees inflation decelerating to 6.3% by the end of this year and confirmed its key monetary policy objective of reducing inflation to the 5.0% plus or minus 2.0 percentage points target range by the end of 2020.
Looking forward, monetary policy easing could well be underway later this year; “the NBU Board said that it could cut [the rate] in the future”, provided inflation expectations continue to improve and the risks to the inflation outlook stemming from uncertainty surrounding the presidential and parliamentary elections retreat.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 25 April.
Ukraine Interest Rate Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the key policy rate ending 2019 at 15.80%. For 2020, the panel expects the key policy rate to fall to 12.85% by year-end.
Ukraine - Interest Rate Data
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.50||14.00||22.00||14.00||14.50|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Ukraine Interest Rate Chart
Source: National Bank of Ukraine.
|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||26.35||0.30 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||556||0.21 %||Mar 11|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
March 14, 2019
At its 14 March meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) held the key policy rate stable at 18.00%, leaving it at a near three-year high.
March 12, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, down from January’s 1.0% increase.
Ukraine: Zelensky leaps forward in polls, but the race is far from over in Ukraine’s presidential election
March 4, 2019
As the 31 March presidential election draws nearer, Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian and political novice, has surged ahead in the polls in recent weeks.
February 25, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production contracted 3.3% year-on-year in January, compared to a 3.5% drop in December.
February 14, 2019
According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 February, the economy kicked into a higher gear at the end of 2018.