Inflation in Turkey
Turkey - Inflation
Inflation hits over two-year high in September
Consumer prices increased 1.25% in September over the previous month, accelerating from August's 1.12% increase. The print reflected a steep rise in the price level for education; furnishing and household equipment; housing; and hotels, cafes and restaurants.
Inflation edged up to 19.6% in September from August’s 19.3%. September's reading marked the highest inflation rate since March 2019. Annual average inflation rose to 16.4% in September (August: 15.8%). Lastly, core inflation ticked up to 17.0% in September, from August’s 16.8%.
Commenting on the inflation outlook in the remainder of this year and next year, analysts at the EIU stated:
“Although a favourable base effect should cause inflation to ease by year-end, persistent inflationary expectations, rising global prices, potential monetary loosening and a weak lira will keep inflation high on average in 2021, at 17.1%--well above the central bank's 5% target. In 2022 supply disruptions will fade but we expect inflationary pressures to remain elevated, at 13.7%, mainly because of continued lira volatility. Aggressive monetary policy easing, high currency volatility, supply-side disruptions and rising global oil prices pose risks to this forecast.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 17.2% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 13.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Turkey - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||7.7||7.8||11.1||16.3||15.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Turkey Inflation Chart
Source: Statistical Institute and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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October 21, 2021
Consumer sentiment took a hit at the outset of the fourth quarter, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 76.8 in October from 79.7 in September.
October 14, 2021
Industrial output expanded 13.8% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, which followed July's 9.7% increase.
October 11, 2021
Turkey recorded a current account surplus of USD 0.5 billion in August, marking the first surplus in 10 months and improving from the USD 4.1 billion shortfall recorded in the same month a year prior (July 2021: USD -0.9 billion).
October 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.25% in September over the previous month, accelerating from August's 1.12% increase.
October 4, 2021
The Turkish lira tumbled drastically at the close of Q3, reaching a new all-time low of TRY 8.92 per USD on 29 September.