GDP in South Africa

South Africa GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

South Africa - GDP

GDP falls back into contraction in Q3

The recovery stumbled in the third quarter, with GDP dropping 1.6% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, contrasting the previous quarter’s 1.1% increase. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, GDP growth moderated markedly to 3.0% from Q2’s record reading of 19.1%. The result was partly due to a fading base effect.

Domestically, the quarterly contraction was largely due to a decline in private consumption, which fell 2.4% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, swinging from Q2’s 0.8% expansion. The unemployment rate rose to a new record high in the quarter (Q3: 34.9%; Q2: 34.4%), weighing on spending in turn. Meanwhile, fixed investment flatlined in Q3, deteriorating from the prior quarter’s 1.2% increase. More positively, government spending bounced back in the third quarter, expanding 0.1% following the previous quarter’s 0.1% contraction.

Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services contracted 5.9% over the previous quarter in Q3, swinging from the 3.5% expansion logged in Q2. Similarly, imports of goods and services declined 2.8% compared to the prior quarter (Q2: 0.0% s.a. qoq). Consequently, the external sector subtracted 0.8 percentage points from the overall reading in Q3, contrasting the prior quarter’s 0.8 percentage-point contribution.

Reflecting on the economy’s performance in Q3 and prospects for the months ahead, analysts at the EIU commented:

“South Africa's […] joblessness has been exacerbated by a week of civil disorder, property damage and economic disruption in July, underlining the tough conditions facing firms and households. […] The identification of the new Omicron variant on 25 November, accompanied by the fresh imposition of global travel restrictions on Southern Africa, threatens to negate the hopedfor economic recovery and delay the government's fiscal consolidation effort to late 2022.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to expand 2.3% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, panelists see GDP growth at 2.0%.

South Africa - GDP Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.2  0.4  1.4  0.8  0.2  

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South Africa GDP Chart


South Africa GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: South African Reserve Bank

South Africa Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.260.29 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate13.98-0.21 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.1-0.44 %Jan 06

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