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SARB Repo Rate in South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank's policy rates over the last decade reflected the country's economic challenges. Initially, rates were increased to combat inflation and stabilize the Rand. However, in 2020, in response to the COVID-19 economic fallout, rates were significantly reduced to historic lows to support economic growth. By 2022, as the economy began recovering and inflationary pressures emerged, the central bank started increasing rates, before mild monetary easing in 2024.
The sarb repo rate ended 2024 at 7.75%, compared to the end-2023 value of 8.25% and the figure a decade earlier of 5.75%. It averaged 6.30% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
South Africa Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for South Africa from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
South Africa Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARB Repo Rate (%, eop) | 3.75 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.75 | 6.75 |
| 3-Month JIBAR (%, eop) | 3.85 | 6.50 | 8.43 | 7.71 | 6.84 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 9.82 | 11.30 | 11.33 | 10.32 | 9.03 |
May sees SARB hike rates for first time in three years
South African Reserve Bank raises rates in split decision: On 28 May, the monetary policy committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%—the first hike since May 2023—following two consecutive holds. Markets had already priced in the move, yet the narrow 4-2 vote revealed the committee was torn between tightening and holding.
Inflation drives hike: The SARB's decision to hike was driven primarily by a sharp rise in inflation and upside risks to consumer prices; the SARB warned that overlapping shocks could trigger second-round effects. Inflation climbed to 4.0% in April from 3.1% in March—the fastest pace since August 2024—pushing it to the upper end of the SARB’s 2.0–4.0% target range. The uptick was largely attributable to the Iran energy price shock, which fed through into higher commodity costs domestically. With South Africa heavily dependent on energy imports, policymakers were also wary that a weaker rand could further stoke imported inflation.
Middle East conflict weighs on outlook: The SARB warned that further hikes could follow should the Iran war drag on, fanning inflation. Our Consensus is for the SARB to stand pat through year-end. However, some panelists have penciled in further hikes, while others forecast the resumption of monetary easing by year-end in line with the SARB’s forecast, which still sees its repo rate ending the year just below 6.50%. The SARB will reconvene on 23 July.
Panelist insight: On the 2026 outlook, EIU analysts commented: “We now forecast that the SARB will maintain its policy rate at 7% for the bulk of 2026, before ebbing inflationary pressures and the restarting of monetary easing in the US presage a policy rate cut of 25 basis points in the final quarter of the year.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects South African interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for South African interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our South African interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of South African interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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