Economy gains pace in the final quarter

GDP growth gains traction in Q4: A second release confirmed that the economy closed 2024 on a stronger footing, expanding 1.8% annually in Q4, up from Q3’s 1.2% rise. As a result, 2024 GDP growth accelerated to 2.0% (2023: +1.4% yoy), marking the best result since 2021. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth gained traction, rising to 0.5% in Q4, following the previous period's 0.3% and marking the fastest increase since Q1.

Total spending drives the uptick: Domestically, private consumption growth accelerated to 2.7% year on year in the fourth quarter (Q3: +1.5% yoy), marking the best reading since Q1 on the back of tighter labor market conditions. Moreover, public spending sped up to a 2.1% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% yoy). That said, fixed investment contracted 11.5% in Q4 (Q3: -8.0% yoy), marking the worst result since Q3 2022; EU funding inflows were paused for around a month in early Q4 due to tensions with the European Commission, dragging on capital outlays. On the external front, exports of goods and services flatlined in Q4, slightly improving from Q3’s 0.2% contraction amid healthier momentum in the Euro area. However, imports of goods and services declined at a slower rate of 0.1% in Q4 (Q3: -0.3% yoy).

GDP growth to remain stable in 2025: Our panelists have cut their 2025 GDP growth forecasts by 0.3 percentage points since December and now expect the economy to expand at a pace similar to that of 2024 in 2025, undershooting the 2010–2019 average of 3.1%. Higher inflation compared to 2024 is poised to dent private spending growth, and fiscal consolidation efforts will cap government spending. That said, ongoing ECB rate cuts should underpin a rebound in fixed investment, and healthier EU demand should add impetus to exports growth. Rising political instability, simmering trade disputes, and a reescalation of tensions with the European Commission endangering the inflow of EU funds are downside risks.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Matej Hornak, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “For the next two years, we have revised our growth forecast downward by half a percentage point to 2% due to fiscal consolidation, which could result in lower consumption and weaker investment activity. Household consumption and inventory creation are expected to provide a positive boost again.”

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