Inflation in Russia
Russia - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation comes in at highest level since February 2016 in October
Consumer prices rose 1.11% in October over the previous month, picking up from the 0.60% increase seen in September. October's uptick marked the highest reading since March 2015 and was chiefly driven by rising prices for goods and food. Meanwhile, services prices were broadly stable at the outset of Q4.
Inflation increased to 8.1% in October, following September’s 7.4%. October's reading represented the highest inflation rate since February 2016. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 6.1% in October (September: 5.7%). Lastly, core inflation rose to 8.0% in October, from September’s 7.6%.
Commenting on the result and the outlook, Artem Zaigrin, Chief Economist at Sova Capital, said:
“Although the figures were in line with our estimates, the print appeared to again beat market expectations […] Going forward, we expect inflation to peak in November and slow down marginally to 7.9% yoy by YE21, with the average 2022 rate at 6.2% yoy. We believe that price pressures lasting longer than expected could require additional measures from CBR, leading CBR to hike the key rate 50bps in December to 8.00%. In contrast to our previous expectations, it might be necessary to keep the policy rate at an elevated level for longer.”
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 4.9% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2023.
Russia - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||12.9||5.4||2.5||4.3||3.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Inflation (eop) Chart
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.23||0.13 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||62.03||-0.12 %||Dec 30|
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November 25, 2021
Industrial output rose 7.1% in year-on-year terms in October, which was above September's 6.9% increase.
November 17, 2021
GDP growth waned to 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by Rosstat on 17 November.
November 12, 2021
Merchandise exports grew 47.0% over the same month last year in September (August: +85.3% year-on-year).
November 4, 2021
Consumer prices rose 1.11% in October over the previous month, picking up from the 0.60% increase seen in September.
November 3, 2021
The IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 48.8 in October, down from September's 50.5.