Inflation in Russia
Russia - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation hits highest level since November 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.20% in June over the last month, slowing down from May's 0.27% increase. June's result marked the softest rise in prices since October 2019.
Inflation came in at 3.2% in June, up from May’s 3.0% print. June's figure was the highest inflation rate since November 2019. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 3.3% in June (May: 3.4%). Core inflation was steady coming in at May's 2.9% in June.
Commenting on inflation outlook, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:
“Given that the current pick-up in CPI is caused largely by the base effect, and given new disinflationary factors, we now do not exclude downside to our CPI forecast that we recently lowered to 3.7% YoY for year-end 2020. This reaffirms our view that the key rate has at least 50 bp downside from the current 4.5% level, to be realized throughout 2H20, and the likelihood of a 25 bp cut in July has increased. Meanwhile, pro-inflationary risks attributable to the possible return of FX volatility in 2H20 and a pick-up in consumer demand may return to focus later in the year.”
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 3.8%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, participants project inflation to end the year at 3.5%.
Russia - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||12.9||5.4||2.5||4.3||3.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Inflation (eop) Chart
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.23||0.13 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||62.03||-0.12 %||Dec 30|
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August 5, 2020
The Russia IHS Markit Services PMI soared to 58.5 in July, from 47.8 in June, marking the best result since July 2008.
August 3, 2020
The Russia IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4, from 49.4 in June.
July 24, 2020
At its meeting on 24 July, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to a fresh record low of 4.25%.
July 16, 2020
Industrial production dropped 9.4% year-on-year in June, improving marginally from May’s 9.6% dive which had marked the sharpest plunge since September 2009.
July 15, 2020
Merchandise exports plummeted 35.5% on annual basis in May (April: -34.5% year-on-year).