Interest Rate in Poland
Poland - Interest Rate
Central Bank holds its ground in July as expected
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its 2–3 July monetary policy meeting, as had been widely expected. In addition, the Central Bank held the Lombard rate stable at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%. The Bank ended an easing cycle in March 2015 and has stood pat since then.
Moderate inflation and the European Central Bank’s loose monetary policy stance were again behind the Bank’s decision. Although headline inflation hit an over six-year high of 2.6% in June, largely due to rising food prices, inflation remained well within Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Meanwhile, surging retail sales and industrial production in April-May suggest economic momentum carried into the second quarter, underpinned by a tight labor market, swiftly rising wages and robust investment activity on the back of rising inflows of EU funds.
Looking ahead, the Bank projects GDP growth to ease and expects inflation to remain close to the target in the coming months. Consequently, FocusEconomics analysts see the Bank keeping the rate unchanged this year, as it balances higher inflation with weaker external demand and the ECB’s loose monetary stance.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 10–11 September.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts expect the reference rate to end 2019 at 1.50%. For 2020, the panel sees the rate ending the year at 1.69%.
Poland - Interest Rate Data
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||2.50||2.00||1.50||1.50||1.50|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Poland Interest Rate Chart
Source: National Bank of Poland.
|Bond Yield||2.18||-0.30 %||Jul 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.87||-0.53 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||59,671||-1.13 %||Jul 31|
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August 22, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 7.4% year-on-year in July, coming in above June’s 5.3% increase.
August 21, 2019
Industrial output jumped 5.8% year-on-year in July, contrasting the 2.7% decline recorded in June, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
August 14, 2019
Consumer prices were unchanged over the previous month in July, following June’s 0.3% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
August 14, 2019
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 August, the economy grew 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the slowest pace in two years.
August 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, dropped to 47.4 points in July (June: 48.4 points).