Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 17–18 July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of...
NBP Reference Rate in Poland
The NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) ended 2024 at 5.75%, unchanged from the 5.75% end-2024 value and up from the reading of 2.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average interest rate in Central & Eastern Europe was 5.12% at end-2024. For more information on interest rate, visit our dedicated page.
Poland Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Poland from 2015 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Poland Interest Rate Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) | 0.10 | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| 3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) | 0.21 | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.84 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 1.25 | 3.64 | 6.92 | 5.20 | 5.90 |
Central Bank cuts rates in July
Rate reduction surprises markets: At its meeting on 1–2 July, the Central Bank decided to cut the NBP reference rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The decision took markets by surprise—they had expected the Bank to hold again as in June.
Improving inflation outlook makes room for a cut: A more favorable inflation outlook drove the decision to cut rates: The Bank expects price pressures to return within the 1.5–3.5% target range in the coming months, and reduced its projections for full-year inflation through 2027. The Bank noted that wage growth is slowing, which should help ease inflation ahead. Moreover, recent signs of moderating economic momentum further motivated the decision.
Further cuts on the horizon: The Central Bank provided no explicit forward guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Our panelists expect 25–50 basis points of further rate reductions by the end of the year as inflation falls within target in H2. Softer-than-expected price pressures and GDP growth pose downside risks. The Bank will reconvene on 2–3 September.
Panelist insight: ING analysts said: “If, according to our forecasts, inflation falls to around 2.5% as early as July, this will justify further significant rate cuts after the holidays. […] We maintain our scenario of further interest rate cuts in September and November and reductions in 2026.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Polish interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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