GDP growth eases in Q1

Economy loses steam but remains resilient: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth ebbed to 3.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. Still, the expansion was the strongest in Central and Eastern Europe. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth lost steam, cooling to 0.7% in Q1, compared to the previous period's 1.4% increase.

Private and public spending weigh on Q1’s performance: Domestic demand fueled Q1’s deceleration in annual GDP growth. Private consumption rose 2.5% in Q1 which was below Q4’s 3.5% expansion. Moreover, public spending grew at the slowest pace since Q1 2023, increasing 2.0% (Q4 2024: +7.6% yoy). That said, fixed investment rebounded, growing 6.3% in Q1, contrasting the 6.9% contraction in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth sped up to 1.1% in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q2 2024 (Q4 2024: +0.2% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services rose at a stable pace of 3.5% in Q1.

Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook: “With economic growth above 3%, Poland continues to outperform other countries across Central and Eastern Europe and other EU economies. We expect economic growth in 2025 to exceed 3%, with the upcoming quarters likely to bring a further strengthening of investment activity. A more balanced structure of domestic demand growth is a positive sign, as the economy relies more on domestic sources of growth than in 2024.”

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