BSP decides to cut rates again in August

Rates down by 150 basis points since last year: At its meeting on 28 August, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided to reduce the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. This brought cumulative rate cuts to 150 basis points since July 2024, marking the sharpest monetary policy easing cycle in ASEAN so far this year.

Stable inflation outlook allows for rate cut: A broadly stable inflation outlook and anchored inflation expectations gave the BSP room to loosen its policy stance further in order to support the economy. The Bank noted persistent downside risks to GDP growth, mostly due to shifts in U.S. policy on trade and investment.

More cuts expected by end-2025: Most of our panelists see at least 25 basis points of further rate reductions by December, as inflation should remain below the BSP’s 2.0–4.0% target range for the rest of the year. That said, some panelists foresee interest rates ending the year at current levels. Softer-than-expected GDP growth due to global trade protectionism poses a key downside risk. The BSP should reconvene on 9 October.

Panelist insight: ING’s Deepali Bhargava commented: “Given our current assumptions of softer domestic GDP growth in the second half of the year and ongoing uncertainty around tariff-related impacts on investment growth, we continue to expect a final 25bp rate cut by the BSP in the fourth quarter.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Philippine interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Philippine interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Philippine interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Philippine interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.