Policy Interest Rate in Peru
The Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) ended 2024 at 5.00%, down from the 6.75% end-2024 value and up from the reading of 3.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average interest rate in Latin America was 12.11% at end-2024. For more information on interest rate, visit our dedicated page.
Peru Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Peru from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Peru Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 2.50 | 7.50 | 6.75 | 5.00 |
Central Bank of Peru leaves rates unchanged in July
Central Bank stays put as expected: At its meeting on 10 July, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.50%. This followed a cumulative 325 basis points of cuts from late 2023 to May this year.
Mild inflation, solid GDP growth and global uncertainty drive hold: The BCRP likely wished to assess the impact of its prior rate cuts over the past 18 months before making any further moves. Economic activity is close to the potential rate, inflation is within the Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range and should remain so going forward, and global uncertainty is elevated due to Trump’s tariffs; all three factors meant that staying put was the logical option.
Easing cycle close to an end: The Central Bank provided no explicit forward guidance on future interest rate moves. Roughly half of our panelists expect the BCRP to hold steady through the end of 2025, while others anticipate rate cuts of 25 or 50 basis points.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Following the recent 25 bp rate cut surprise in May, the interest rate differential between the Fed and the BCRP has closed. Given that inflationary pressures remain under control, there is room for at least one more 25 bp rate cut this year. We anticipate the cycle ending at 4% in early 2026.” EIU analysts took a different view: “We expect the BCRP to make just one more policy rate cut of 25 basis points in the second half of 2025 in order to avoid triggering depreciatory pressures on the sol. As such, the BCRP's policy rate will reach 4.25% at year-end and its terminal rate of 3.75% by mid-2026.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Peruvian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Peruvian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Peruvian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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