Economy grows at softest pace since Q1 2024 in the second quarter

GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth lost steam in Q2, falling to 2.8% year on year from 3.9% in the first quarter and marking the worst reading since Q1 2024. That said, the Q2 reading was above the Latin American average for the sixth straight quarter.

Drivers: The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all weakening. Private consumption increased 3.6% in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter's 3.8% expansion. Government consumption growth moderated to 3.6% in Q2 (Q1: +4.8% yoy). Fixed investment growth softened to 7.7% in Q2, compared to 9.3% recorded in the previous quarter. Exports of goods and services fell 0.6% on an annual basis in the second quarter, which contrasted the first quarter's 9.2% expansion. In addition, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 12.7% in Q2 (Q1: +17.1% yoy).

Panelist insight: On the latest reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Economic activity continues to perform well. Business confidence indicators remain broadly positive, the investment recovery is ongoing, and terms of trade are still near historical highs. We have a GDP growth forecast of 2.9% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026. While tariff-related uncertainty presents medium-term downside risks, the slightly improved growth outlook for China and the exemption of refined copper exports to the U.S. will help mitigate short-term risks to Peru’s economic activity.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 44 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Peruvian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Peruvian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Peruvian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.