New Zealand GDP

Economic growth accelerates in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: New Zealand's GDP increased 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1, following 0.5% growth in the prior quarter.

Drivers: Relative to the previous period's data, readings in Q1 improved for private consumption (+0.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis vs -0.1% in Q4), fixed investment (+2.0% vs -1.3% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+3.1% vs +0.5% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+4.2% vs +1.3% in Q4). In contrast, the reading for government consumption softened in Q1 (+1.5% vs +2.1% in Q4).

Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs analysts said: “Data provide further evidence that an encouraging economic recovery was building in New Zealand prior to the Middle-East conflict – and likely a little stronger than the RBNZ forecast once revisions are factored-in. Given this, and the strength of the RBNZ's recent hawkish guidance that "in the near term we will likely need some OCR hikes", we continue to expect a mini pre-emptive tightening cycle (+25bp in July/Sept).” Digging deeper into the Q1 reading, United Overseas Bank’s Lee Sue Ann said: “The latest GDP points to a modest but ongoing recovery in economic activity, with momentum improving relative to late 2025. Growth was supported by a range of sectors, including manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, as well as professional services, suggesting a reasonably broad-based expansion. Overall, the composition of growth suggests that domestic demand is gradually stabilising, even as parts of the interest rate-sensitive sectors remain under pressure.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects New Zealand GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 29 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for New Zealand GDP.

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