Netherlands GDP

Economic growth picks up in Q2 2026

Q2 GDP growth beats market expectations: According to a flash estimate, the Netherlands' GDP grew 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2, following an upwardly revised 0.3% growth in the prior quarter. The reading exceeded market expectations. In annual terms, the economy grew 1.3% in Q2, following a 1.4% expansion in the previous quarter.

Private and public consumption named the main growth drivers: Compared with the previous period's data, readings in Q2 improved for private consumption (+0.5% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.4% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+1.2% vs -0.2% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+1.4% vs +0.2% in Q1). In contrast, readings softened for government consumption (+0.4% vs +0.7% in Q1) and fixed investment (+0.5% vs +0.7% in Q1). The expenditure components making the largest contribution to GDP in Q2 were consumer and government spending. Consumers boosted purchases of passenger cars, while the government ramped up outlays on healthcare and wages. Meanwhile, businesses increased fixed investment on electrotechnical devices, while construction firms, in contrast, reduced their capex. Net trade detracted slightly from overall growth, as import growth outpaced that of exports.

GDP growth to lose some steam in Q3: Our Consensus is for the Dutch economy to lose some traction in Q3, likely weighed on by the Iran energy shock and disruptions in trade flows in the Strait of Hormuz. Downside risks include prolonged disruption in the Hormuz Strait and the approval of the MATCH Act in the U.S., which obliges allied countries to align their export controls on China. The act would pose a particular threat to ASML, a Dutch producer which is Europe’s most valuable company and the world’s only producer of the top-notch lithography machines that countries including China use to make the semiconductors that power everything from electric vehicles to AI accelerators.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Dutch GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Dutch GDP.

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