Merchandise exports increase in April

Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 5.8% in annual terms in April, following March’s 9.6% increase, amid higher mining and manufactured exports. Exports to the U.S. kept rising, despite U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, merchandise imports contracted 1.2% on an annual basis in April (March: +7.1% yoy). The merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 0.1 billion deficit in April (March 2025: USD 3.4 billion surplus; April 2024: USD 3.7 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 0.8 billion deficit in April, compared to the USD 4.4 billion deficit in March.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “The April trade balance demonstrates the strength of external accounts amid tariff threats, with some signs of front-loading on exports. The uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s trade relationship with the US will continue to challenge trade flows. Looking ahead, the performance of oil exports will be influenced by domestic policies related to national sovereignty and the expected low oil prices. Weaker internal demand and a slowdown in construction are likely to limit non-energy consumption and capital imports, particularly for non-residential projects.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican merchandise exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable merchandise exports forecast available for Mexican merchandise exports.

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