GDP in Malaysia
Malaysia - GDP
Economy surges ahead in Q2
Malaysia’s economy is moving full speed ahead as demonstrated by the release of second quarter GDP figures on 18 August. GDP expanded a healthy 5.8% over the same quarter of the previous year (Q1:+5.6% year-on-year), beating out market expectations of a deceleration to 5.4%. The annual growth was the highest reading since the first quarter of 2015 and was fueled by resilient domestic demand and a better performance from the external sector. In quarterly terms, seasonally-adjusted GDP growth eased from 1.8% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2.
Domestic demand was behind Q1’s acceleration, increasing 6.2% (Q1: +7.4% yoy). Fixed investment moderated sharply from 10.0% in Q1 to 4.0% in Q2, weighed down by slower growth in expenditure on machinery and equipment. However, private consumption expanded markedly, by 7.1% (Q1: +6.6% yoy) on the back of building consumer confidence and higher wages. Government consumption growth moderated to 3.3% (Q1: +7.5% yoy).
In the external sector, exports of goods and services grew 12.2% in Q2, a slackening from Q1 (+12.6% yoy) but a strong print nonetheless. Imports, however, grew at a slower pace (Q2: +10.8% yoy; Q1: +18.5% yoy), causing the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth in Q2 to rise.
The positive surprise in the second quarter has led some of our analysts to re-evaluate their forecasts for this year. Commenting on Nomura’s outlook, analysts Euben Paracuelles and Brian Tan elaborate:
“With H1 GDP growth coming in at a robust 5.7%, we raise our full-year 2017 forecast to 5.5% from 5.3% further above the [Nomura] consensus estimate of 5.0% […] We expect Q3 GDP growth to remain solid at 5.8% y-o-y, broadly stable from Q2. The statistical distortion from the earlier Eid al-Fitr holiday – which fell in June this year instead of July last year – implies a favourable base effect for data in July (and Q3), particularly manufacturing activity.”
Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 4.9% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel expects economic growth of 4.6%.
Malaysia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.5||4.7||6.0||5.0||4.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Malaysia GDP Chart
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||3.92||0.75 %||Sep 21|
|Exchange Rate||4.20||0.25 %||Sep 21|
|Stock Market||1,771||-0.14 %||Sep 21|
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September 11, 2017
Industrial production grew 6.1% in July from the same month last year, above June’s 4.0% increase.
September 7, 2017
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) decided to keep the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.00% at its 7 September monetary policy meeting, as widely expected by market analysts.
September 6, 2017
In USD terms, exports grew 20.4% annually in July, significantly above June’s revised 5.5% increase (previously reported: +5.6% year-on-year).
August 23, 2017
According to the Statistical Institute, consumer prices fell 0.1% in July over the previous month, the highest reading since March.
August 18, 2017
Malaysia’s economy is moving full speed ahead as demonstrated by the release of second quarter GDP figures on 18 August.