Bank Negara Malaysia leaves rates unchanged in September

Central Bank back on hold: At its meeting on 4 September, the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) decided to maintain the overnight policy rate at 2.75% as markets had expected, after having reduced it for the first time in five years in July.

Easing uncertainty and supportive domestic dynamics behind September’s hold: Soft inflation and resilient GDP growth led the BNM to return to a hold, as neither a rate hike nor a cut was deemed necessary. The Bank noted that global economic uncertainty had eased and that risks to the economic outlook were broadly balanced.

Further rate cuts in 2025 unlikely: Going forward, the majority of our panelists expect rates to remain at current levels by December, while the rest anticipate a 25 basis point cut. Softer-than-expected GDP growth, particularly due to intensifying frictions in global trade, poses a downside risk to the policy rate. The Bank will reconvene on 6 November.

Panelist insight: Nomura’s Euben Paracuelles and Yiru Chen said: “We maintain our forecast that BNM will leave the OPR unchanged at 2.75% at the last meeting of 2025 (in November) and throughout 2026. Our view of a resilient growth outlook despite external headwinds is still broadly consistent with BNM’s assessment […]. Consistent with BNM’s assessment that the current monetary stance is appropriate and supportive of the economy, we still think the OPR cut at the previous MPC meeting was a one-off and is therefore unlikely to mark the start of an easing cycle […]. Nevertheless, we see some risk of an OPR cut in 2026, if downside risks to growth materialize, particularly from global trade tensions and the implementation of sectoral US tariffs.”

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