GDP records highest growth since Q1 2022 in Q4

Economy ends 2024 on a firmer footing: GDP growth improved to 3.7% year on year in the fourth quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis from 2.6% in the third quarter, marking an over two-year high. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy rose 0.8% in Q4, down from Q3’s 1.1% expansion and marking a one-year low. In 2024 as a whole, GDP growth rose to 2.7% from 2023’s 0.4%, reaching a three-year high and the strongest result in the Baltic region.

Private spending and capital outlays fuel Q4’s uptick: Domestically, Q4’s annual acceleration was thanks to household spending and fixed investment: Private consumption increased 4.9% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +3.8% yoy), and fixed investment rebounded, growing 0.7% in Q4, contrasting the 3.6% contraction recorded in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, public spending growth ebbed to 1.3% in Q4 (Q3: +1.5% yoy). Externally, exports of goods and services contracted 5.8% in Q4, marking the worst reading since Q3 2023 (Q3: +5.4% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.6% in Q4 (Q3: +4.5% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q1 2024.

Economy to maintain solid pace in 2025: In 2025, our panelists see GDP growth near 2024’s level. Private spending will grow at a sharper pace and fixed investment will rebound, both boosted by the ECB’s interest rate cuts. Additionally, exports will pick up steam as EU demand strengthens. On the other hand, public consumption is set to decelerate. Risks are tilted to the downside and include higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs and weaker EU demand.

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