Merchandise exports grow at a faster pace in April

Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 3.7% annually in April, following March’s 2.8% increase and beating market forecasts for a decline. Once again, IT exports—particularly semiconductors—were the key driver thanks to surging global AI demand. That said, after adjusting for working days exports were lower year on year, driven by weaker sales to the U.S. Meanwhile, merchandise imports declined 2.7% on an annual basis in April (March: +2.2% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 4.9 billion surplus in April (March 2025: USD 4.8 billion surplus; April 2024: USD 1.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 54.2 billion surplus in April, compared to the USD 50.6 billion surplus in March.

Panelist insight: On the trade outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Despite the potential threat of tariffs on chips and tech products, we expect chip exports to see tailwinds, with stronger chip prices and solid AI-related demand. In addition, tariff uncertainty will continue to drive front-loading demand, which may support rising prices in legacy chips. On the non-chip sector, however, we expect tariff uncertainty to remain a large drag, partly offsetting solid chip export growth.”

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