Merchandise exports increase in June

Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 4.3% on an annual basis in June, rebounding from a 1.3% decline in May, though undershooting market expectations. The result marked the best print since December 2024, mainly driven by robust semiconductor exports—the country’s main export—due to solid AI demand. On the flipside, shipments of steel products shrank due to US tariffs. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 3.3% in annual terms in June (May: -5.3% yoy), marking the strongest result since August 2024. As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 9.1 billion surplus in June (May 2025: USD 6.9 billion surplus; June 2024: USD 8.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 56.7 billion surplus in June, compared to the USD 55.8 billion surplus in May.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Nomura’s Jeong Woo Park said: “Beyond Q2, amid a pick-up in AI demand led by Nvidia ramping up its Blackwell series, we believe surging chip prices will continue to support a recovery in chip exports, which we believe could provide an offset to the tariff shock. Furthermore, while the US tariff threat is likely to remain a potential downside risk to the export outlook as we approach the tariff negotiation deadline (8 July), we expect the tariff negotiation to result in lower effective tariffs, including lower tariffs on auto sectors and the continued exemption of tech products.”

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