Private Consumption in Kazakhstan
The Kazakhstani economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.3% in private consumption in the decade to 2024, above the 2.2% average for CIS Countries. In 2024, the growth of private consumption was6.7%. For more information on private consumption, visit our dedicated page.
Kazakhstan Private consumption Chart
Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Kazakhstan from 2013 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Kazakhstan Private consumption Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | -3.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 |
GDP growth records best result since 2011 in January-June
Fastest GDP expansion in over a decade: According to preliminary estimates, annual GDP growth rose to 6.2% in January-June (Q1: +5.6% yoy), marking the fastest pace since 2011 and exceeding the 4.5% pre-pandemic 10-year average.
GDP growth driven by the tertiary sector: On the production side, the improvement was chiefly driven by the services sector, which expanded by 5.2% (Q1: +4.5% yoy) and was the main contributor to GDP growth. Wholesale and retail trade gained steam, while transportation and storage activities growth surged to the highest level since at least 2010. Moreover, the construction sector saw a sharper rise of 18.4% (Q1: +16.9% yoy)—its fastest since Q1 2008—likely buoyed by public infrastructure projects. Agricultural output growth also edged up to 3.7% (Q1: +3.4% yoy). In contrast, industrial production rose at a slower pace of 6.5% (Q1: +6.7% yoy) due to a cooling manufacturing sector. Still, it was the second-largest contributor to GDP growth, with mining and quarry growing at the fastest pace since Q4 2017 as Kazakhstan continued to exceed OPEC+ crude quotas in H1 following Chevron’s USD 48 billion Tengiz oilfield expansion.
Exports to lead economic acceleration in 2025: Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth to lose traction in the third quarter following four consecutive accelerations. Rising inflation and high interest rates will likely weigh on growth in Q3. Still, growth should remain above the 4.5% pre-pandemic 10-year average in H2. For 2025 as a whole, GDP growth is expected to edge up from 2024 given rising growth in public spending and exports. Crude and gas prices will be key to monitor, while heightened social unrest due to high public frustration over corruption, weak political oversight and low living standards is a downside risk.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate [from 2024 in 2025]. Important growth drivers are increased oil production, fiscal stimulus, strong credit growth and expanded infrastructure investment. Headline inflation and interest rates, while below their 2023 peak levels, are elevated and have trended upwards since late 2024. We expect the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy and softening disposable income growth to dampen private spending gradually over the second half of 2025 and in 2026. Global instability and trade protectionism are constraining export performance, albeit partly offset by off-balance-sheet re-exporting of goods subject to sanctions to Russia.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Kazakhstani private consumption.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Kazakhstani private consumption projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Kazakhstani private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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