Investment in Japan
Japan - Investment
Economy grows quickly in Q2 but at a slower pace than originally estimated
The economy expanded at a weaker rate than previously reported in Q2, following a downward revision in domestic demand. GDP rose 2.5% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) terms—lower than the 4.0% increase originally reported but higher than Q1’s 1.2% rise. Domestic demand expanded 3.8% in Q2, much slower than the 5.2% originally reported but also higher than Q1’s 0.7% expansion. Q2’s revised rate of overall expansion undershot market analyst expectations of a 2.9% increase. Nevertheless, it represented the fastest rate of growth in more than two years. In annual terms, GDP grew 1.4% in Q2, lower than the 2.0% expansion originally reported (Q1: +1.5% year-on-year).
The downward revision in domestic demand took its toll on the Q2 quarter-on-quarter economic expansion in SAAR terms notably because gross fixed investment grew only 7.1% (previously reported: +11.7% quarter-on-quarter SAAR). While growth in private consumption was revised down slightly to 3.4% (previously reported: +3.7% qoq SAAR), it still represented the fastest pace of expansion in over 3 years, pointing to a much-needed recovery in household spending.
The external sector, on which the Japanese economy is very reliant, saw little change in Q2’s revised release. Exports contracted an unchanged 1.9% in SAAR terms compared to Q1’s 8.0% expansion because of a stronger yen. Imports expanded a slightly higher 5.7% than the 5.6% expansion originally reported, compared to Q1’s 5.4% expansion. All in all, the external sector led to a net growth contribution of minus 1.2 percentage points in Q2, worse than the originally reported net contribution of negative 1.1 percentage points (Q1: plus 0.5 percentage points).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 1.5% and 1.8% in fiscal year 2017, which ends in March 2018. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.1% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.4% in calendar year 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees the economy growing 1.0%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Japan - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||3.5||5.0||2.7||0.1||1.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.07||-4.41 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||112.6||-0.35 %||Oct 19|
|Stock Market||21,449||0.40 %||Oct 19|
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October 19, 2017
Nominal exports valued in yen increased 14.1% from the same month last year in September, following August’s 18.1% rise.
October 11, 2017
Core machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period) expanded for the second consecutive month in August, suggesting that businesses are ramping up investments in order to cope with healthy external and domestic demand.
October 3, 2017
Consumer sentiment edged up from 43.3 in August to 43.9 in September, marking a six-month high.
October 2, 2017
According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey, sentiment among large manufacturers jumped to the highest level in 10 years, suggesting that the economic recovery is broadening.
September 29, 2017
In August, the core consumer price index rose 0.1% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from the flat reading in the previous six months.