GDP in Japan
Japan - GDP
Economy grows quickly in Q2 but at a slower pace than originally estimated
The economy expanded at a weaker rate than previously reported in Q2, following a downward revision in domestic demand. GDP rose 2.5% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) terms—lower than the 4.0% increase originally reported but higher than Q1’s 1.2% rise. Domestic demand expanded 3.8% in Q2, much slower than the 5.2% originally reported but also higher than Q1’s 0.7% expansion. Q2’s revised rate of overall expansion undershot market analyst expectations of a 2.9% increase. Nevertheless, it represented the fastest rate of growth in more than two years. In annual terms, GDP grew 1.4% in Q2, lower than the 2.0% expansion originally reported (Q1: +1.5% year-on-year).
The downward revision in domestic demand took its toll on the Q2 quarter-on-quarter economic expansion in SAAR terms notably because gross fixed investment grew only 7.1% (previously reported: +11.7% quarter-on-quarter SAAR). While growth in private consumption was revised down slightly to 3.4% (previously reported: +3.7% qoq SAAR), it still represented the fastest pace of expansion in over 3 years, pointing to a much-needed recovery in household spending.
The external sector, on which the Japanese economy is very reliant, saw little change in Q2’s revised release. Exports contracted an unchanged 1.9% in SAAR terms compared to Q1’s 8.0% expansion because of a stronger yen. Imports expanded a slightly higher 5.7% than the 5.6% expansion originally reported, compared to Q1’s 5.4% expansion. All in all, the external sector led to a net growth contribution of minus 1.2 percentage points in Q2, worse than the originally reported net contribution of negative 1.1 percentage points (Q1: plus 0.5 percentage points).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 1.5% and 1.8% in fiscal year 2017, which ends in March 2018. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.1% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.4% in calendar year 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees the economy growing 1.0%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Japan - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.5||2.0||0.3||1.1||1.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan GDP Chart
Source: Cabinet Office and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||0.03||-3.33 %||Sep 21|
|Exchange Rate||112.5||0.22 %||Sep 21|
|Stock Market||20,347||0.18 %||Sep 21|
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September 8, 2017
The economy expanded at a weaker rate than previously reported in Q2, following a downward revision in domestic demand.
August 31, 2017
Industrial production fell 0.8% in July compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting June’s 2.2% increase.
August 25, 2017
In July, the core consumer price index was flat from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, matching the result in the previous five months.
August 23, 2017
The Nikkei Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from July’s revised 52.1 (previously reported: 52.2) to 52.8 in August.
August 17, 2017
Nominal exports valued in yen increased 13.4% from the same month last year in July, following June’s 9.7% increase.