Merchandise export growth surges in May

Latest reading: Merchandise exports climbed 9.7% over the same month last year in May (April: +5.1% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 2.8% over the same month last year in May (April: +22.8% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 4.9 billion surplus in May (April 2025: USD 1.0 billion surplus; May 2024: USD 3.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 42.7 billion surplus in May, compared to the USD 41.1 billion surplus in April.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen said: “We expect trade surplus to moderate this year to USD28bn, down from USD31bn last year, USD36.9bn in 2023, and off record high of USD54.5bn back in 2022. Uncertainty arising from the reciprocal tariffs will likely affect external demand which will lead to slower export growth. On the other side, import may increase due to possibly Indonesia-US negotiations and risks of exportation of excess inventories from China.”

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