Merchandise exports rebound in July; U.S. talks in focus

Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 7.3% in annual terms in July, on the heels of June’s 0.1% decrease. Meanwhile, merchandise imports climbed 8.6% over the same month last year in July (June: -3.7% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 27.4 billion deficit in July (June 2025: USD 18.8 billion deficit; July 2024: USD 24.8 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 290.4 billion deficit in July, compared to the USD 287.8 billion deficit in June.

Outlook: Key to the outlook for goods exports ahead will be trade talks with the U.S.; in early August, the U.S. hit India with an additional 25% tariff for buying Russian oil, bringing total levies up to 50%.

Panelist insight: On the impact of current U.S. tariffs, EIU analysts said: “We still believe that a bilateral trade agreement of some form will manifest in the months ahead, with complicated issues left for future discussions […]. If the 50% tariff on India remains in place for the rest of fiscal year 2025/26 (April-March), we believe that it will reduce GDP growth to 5.8%, from our current forecast of 6.2% (under the baseline 25% tariff rate).”

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Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indian trade projections.

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