Trade Balance in India
India - Trade Balance
Exports increase slowly in February, while imports decrease
Merchandise export growth in annual terms decelerated to 2.4% in February from 3.7% in January. The expansion was underpinned by increased exports of pharmaceutical products. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, tumbled 5.4% in February, contrasting the flat growth in January and primarily due to fewer purchases of oil, precious stones and electronic goods from abroad.
The merchandise trade deficit was USD 9.6 billion in February, notably reduced from USD 14.7 billion in January and USD 12.3 billion in the same month last year. The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit shrank for the third consecutive month to USD 179.2 billion in February from 182.0 billion in January.
Commenting on the short-term future of the external sector, analysts at Nomura commented:
“We remain cautious on export growth owing to slowing global demand [and believe] import growth will also be modest in the wake of lagged effect of INR depreciation and domestic slowdown. However, increased oil prices and a pickup in gold demand in response to elections remain key upside risks to our view on import growth.”
India Trade Balance Forecast
Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 7.2% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 5.8%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 193.0 billion. In FY 2019, we expect exports and imports will expand 9.3% and 7.2% respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 201.0 billion.
India - Trade Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -136.6 | -137.5 | -117.2 | -109.0 | -157.0 |
India Trade Balance Chart
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.51 | -0.04 % | Mar 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 69.85 | -0.09 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 37,054 | -0.08 % | Mar 11 |
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Economic News
India: Exports increase slowly in February, while imports decrease
March 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms decelerated to 2.4% in February from 3.7% in January.
India: Consumer price inflation accelerates in February but remains low
March 14, 2019
In February, consumer prices rose 0.22% compared to the previous month, which contrasts the revised 0.36% decrease in January (previously reported: -0.29% month-on-month).
India: Industrial production growth slows in January
March 12, 2019
Annual industrial production growth decelerated to 1.7% in January from a revised 2.4% in December (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year).
India: The private sector expands at a faster pace in February
March 5, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market improved to 53.8 in February from 53.6 in January, rising further above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI increased to 52.5 in February from 52.2 in January on the back of a faster increase in new business orders.
India: Economic growth slows in the third quarter of FY 2018
February 28, 2019
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2018—which ran from October to December—GDP grew 6.6% compared to the same quarter a year earlier.
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