Trade Balance in India
India - Trade Balance
The merchandise trade deficit continues to widen in November
Merchandise exports increased 0.8% in November compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the jump observed in October (+17.9% year-on-year) and less than market analysts’ expectations of 5.3%. The moderation in November was largely due to a high base effect, while the expansion itself was underpinned by higher sales of petroleum products and electronic goods abroad.
Merchandise imports increased 4.3% in November, noticeably lower than the 17.6% rise in October and undershooting market analysts’ expectations of 6.1%. The moderated increase in November was due to a slower—but still very high—rise in oil imports and another decrease in gold imports.
The trade deficit in goods widened to USD 16.7 billion in November from USD 15.1 billion in November 2017 (October: USD 17.1 billion deficit). The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit grew to USD 185.0 billion in November from USD 183.4 billion in October. Going forward, the deficit is likely to continue rise on robust economic growth and high oil prices, despite government efforts to curb imports and the recent depreciation of the rupee.
Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 12.2% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 15.5%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 193 billion. In FY 2020, we expect exports and imports will expand 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 200.0 billion.
India - Trade Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -136.6 | -137.5 | -117.2 | -109.0 | -157.0 |
India Trade Balance Chart
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.43 | -0.04 % | Jan 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 70.76 | -0.09 % | Jan 14 |
| Stock Market | 35,854 | -0.08 % | Jan 14 |
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Economic News
India: Consumer price inflation slows in December to an over one-year low
January 14, 2019
In December, consumer prices rose fell 0.43% in December from the previous month, contrasting the 0.07% rise logged in November.
India: The private sector expansion slows in December but remains strong
January 4, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market fell to 53.6 in December from 54.5 in November.
India: Inflation slows dramatically in November
December 14, 2018
In November, consumer prices rose 0.07% in November from the previous month, contrasting the revised 0.36% rise in October (previously reported: +0.29% month-on-month).
India: The merchandise trade deficit continues to widen in November
December 14, 2018
Merchandise exports increased 0.8% in November compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the jump observed in October (+17.9% year-on-year) and less than market analysts’ expectations of 5.3%.
India: Industrial production growth accelerates in October
December 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 8.1% in October, up from 4.5% in September.
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