GDP per capita in India
India - GDP per capita (U.S. Dollars)
Economic growth slumps to an over six-year low at the outset of FY 2019
In Q1 FY 2019, which ran from April to June, the economy grew 5.0% compared to the same period a year earlier, well below Q4 FY 2018’s 5.8% expansion and market analysts’ expectations of 5.7% growth. It also marked the slowest growth rate since Q4 FY 2012.
A significant slowdown in private consumption weighed on the overall reading in Q1 FY 2019: Annual private spending growth plummeted to 3.1% in the quarter, from 7.3% in Q4 FY 2018, as consumers faced tougher lending conditions from non-bank financial companies which collectively account for around one-fifth of new lending in India. More positively, government consumption remained strong despite decelerating (Q1: +8.9% year-on-year; Q4: +13.1% yoy) and fixed investment growth picked up steam (Q1: +4.0% yoy; Q4: +3.6% yoy).
On the external front, both exports and imports growth moderated in Q1 FY 2019. Nevertheless, as export growth (Q1: +5.7% yoy; Q4: +10.6% yoy) outpaced import growth (Q1: +4.2% yoy; Q4: +13.3% yoy), the external sector contributed 0.1 percentage points to overall economic growth, contrasting the 0.7 percentage-point subtraction in Q4 FY 2018.
In a bid to turn the tide against slowing growth, the government announced a series of measures in August. These included the merger of 12 of India’s 27 public sector banks into just 4, which should support lending activity in the medium-term, as well as the relaxation of foreign direct investment rules in the manufacturing, coal mining and digital media industries. Moreover, the government continued to press banks to pass on recent cuts in the Central Bank’s interest rates to borrowers. Overall, analysts at Nomura said the measures were “a positive signal from the government that outside of monetary policy, which can only aid a cyclical recovery, focus on structural reforms is essential to lift trend growth”.
Meanwhile, looking at the implications of the GDP result for the monetary policy outlook, analysts at ING added: “We retain our forecast of an additional 50bp of rate cuts over the rest of the year, taking the repo rate to 4.90%, the lowest in a decade and just shy of the 4.75% record low reached during the 2009 global financial crisis.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 6.8% in FY 2019 as a whole, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2020, our panel expects GDP to expand 7.1%.
India - GDP per capita (USD) Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,488||1,614||1,633||1,763||2,017|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||6.55||-0.04 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||71.99||-0.09 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||36,725||-0.08 %||Sep 04|
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October 11, 2019
Industrial production fell 1.1% in year-on-year terms in August, contrasting July’s revised 4.6% increase (previously reported: +4.3% year-on-year). Most industrial sectors contributed to the slump in August, with output in the manufacturing sector dropping the most, followed by output in the electricity sector.
October 4, 2019
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut all monetary policy rates by 0.25 percentage points at its 1–4 October meeting, reducing the repo rate to 5.15%, the marginal standing facility to 5.40% and the reverse repurchase rate to 4.90%.
October 4, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit sank to 49.8 in September from 52.6 in August, marking the first time in 19 months that it landed below the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the private sector.
September 13, 2019
Merchandise exports declined6.0% year-on-year in August, amounting to USD 26.1 billion, contrasting July’s 2.3% increase.
September 12, 2019
In August, consumer prices rose 0.49% compared to the previous month, down from July’s 0.91% increase.