Exchange Rate in India
India - Exchange Rate (average of period)
The rupee crashes to record low due to large economic imbalances and suppressed investor appetite for emerging-market assets
The rupee weakened to a historic high against the USD in September, compounding the poor performance of recent months. This was largely due to India’s economic imbalances, as demonstrated by the merchandise trade deficit which has reached multi-year highs in recent months, and falling investor confidence in developing economies. On 11 September, the rupee traded at 72.6 per U.S. dollar, worsening 5.4% from the same day a month earlier and the weakest it has been against the USD in history. So far this calendar year, the rupee has shed 13.6% of its value against the dollar.
The rupee’s recent woes have come amid resurging oil prices—as of 11 September, Brent crude oil prices rose more than 40% compared to the same day a year earlier. This has put enormous pressure on India’s merchandise trade balance given that India imports most of its oil and has underpinned inflationary pressures. Moreover, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the current account deficit to deteriorate this year. In addition to higher oil prices, investors have been fleeing emerging-market assets in recent months, most evidently in Turkey and Argentina. This follows the tightening of monetary policy in major developed economies and the erection of trade barriers around the world, dampening global growth potential. With a similar scenario affecting capital markets in India, this has resulted in outflows from the stock and bond markets, worsening the current account deficit.
Looking ahead, FocusEconomics panelists see the rupee strengthening from recent lows, ending FY2018 (which ends in March 2019) at 68.2 INR per USD and ending FY 2019 at INR 67.9 per USD.
India - Exchange Rate (aop) Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||60.42||61.14||65.42||67.04||64.46|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Exchange Rate (aop) Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters.
|Bond Yield||7.43||-0.04 %||Jan 14|
|Exchange Rate||70.76||-0.09 %||Jan 14|
|Stock Market||35,854||-0.08 %||Jan 14|
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January 14, 2019
In December, consumer prices rose fell 0.43% in December from the previous month, contrasting the 0.07% rise logged in November.
January 4, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market fell to 53.6 in December from 54.5 in November.
December 14, 2018
In November, consumer prices rose 0.07% in November from the previous month, contrasting the revised 0.36% rise in October (previously reported: +0.29% month-on-month).
December 14, 2018
Merchandise exports increased 0.8% in November compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the jump observed in October (+17.9% year-on-year) and less than market analysts’ expectations of 5.3%.
December 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 8.1% in October, up from 4.5% in September.